Fun with COVID-19 reporting in MA (and elsewhere)

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got much better and 2 roughly stayed the same. Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     7.4% (slightly up from the 7.3% last week but still down from 8.5% the prior two seeks) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:     6 (down from 7the last two weeks) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     170.1!  (significantly down from 197 last week and lower than anything we've seen in about 3 months) Meanwhile, the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds reached the lowest its seen in a few months after hovering between 88 and 94 and not being below 90% for more than a week at a time) Threshold: 95.0% Current:     86.0% 

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got better, 1 stayed the same, and 1 continued to get slightly worse. Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     7.3% (down from 8.5% the last two seeks) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:     7 (same as last week but down from 10 two weeks ago) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     197 (continuing the slight uptick progression of 194 from last week and 193.6 the week before, but still much lower than the 248.9 the before that) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds continues to hover around the same spot it has for a few months now.  We're now below 90% which we haven't seen for more than 1 week at a time since the start of last November so will we see that streak break next week with a second consecutive week below 90%? Threshold: 95.0% Current: ...

This Valentine's Day, I'd like to lovingly remind you that covid spread in MA stopped reducing in late January this year. In 2022, we were still very much in a downward trajectory and, by Valentine's day, had gotten to to around 1/4 of the spread we saw at our lowest so far in 2023 based on wastewater tracking... and we weren't done reducing spread at that point. We continued for another half month to see the lowest spread we would see in all of 2022 (though not the lowest seen since the start of the pandemic). While the messaging all around us tells us that covid is now in maintenance phase, keep in mind that the lowest spread we've seen in 2023 is higher than the spread seen for most of 2022 (and the last data we have shows the north as 13% higher than their low and the south as 33% higher than their low. Happy Valentine's Day, COVID-19, I'm sure you'll make some lasting connections today.

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got better, 1 stayed the same, and 1 got ever so slightly worse but not significantly. Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     8.5% (same as last week but otherwise the lowest we've seen in 2023) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   7 (down from 10 last week and also the lowest we've seen in 2023) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     194 (slight uptick from last week's 193.6, but still much lower than the 248.9 the week prior) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds continues to hover around the same spot it has for a few months now, though now with reduction from 91.3% last week and 91% the week prior, it's just ever so slightly the lowest Boston has seen since November: Threshold: 95.0% Current:     90.9%

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, all got somewhat better and one even crossed below the threshold! are still worse than we saw 23-Dec-2022 (which was when these three reached the threshold) Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     8.5% (down from 9.9% last week ) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   10 (down from 12 last week but still up from 23-Dec-2022's 11) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     193.6 (down from 248.9 the week before and finally below the threshold for the first time since 23-Dec-2022) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds is still below the threshold but just barely...and is not really getting better but instead just essentially hovering well above the target and, for 3 of the last 5 weeks, just inches from reaching the threshold of concern: Threshold: 95.0% Current: ...