Fun with COVID-19 reporting in MA (and elsewhere)

Good news: in the last 2 months, Boston's count of adults hospitalized for COVID-19 has been cut in half. Bad news: the number of occupied ICU beds in Boston is static... 88.6% at the start of February, 88.2% today with a low of 85.6% and a high of 90.8% in-between. Also, for comparison, the adults hospitalized for COVID-19 is currently just shy of where it was for June through August last year ... and just under 150% of what it was in Mar 2022 ... and just over 150% of what it was the summer of 2021.

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got much better and 2 roughly stayed the same. Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     7.4% (slightly up from the 7.3% last week but still down from 8.5% the prior two seeks) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:     6 (down from 7the last two weeks) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     170.1!  (significantly down from 197 last week and lower than anything we've seen in about 3 months) Meanwhile, the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds reached the lowest its seen in a few months after hovering between 88 and 94 and not being below 90% for more than a week at a time) Threshold: 95.0% Current:     86.0% 

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got better, 1 stayed the same, and 1 continued to get slightly worse. Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     7.3% (down from 8.5% the last two seeks) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:     7 (same as last week but down from 10 two weeks ago) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     197 (continuing the slight uptick progression of 194 from last week and 193.6 the week before, but still much lower than the 248.9 the before that) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds continues to hover around the same spot it has for a few months now.  We're now below 90% which we haven't seen for more than 1 week at a time since the start of last November so will we see that streak break next week with a second consecutive week below 90%? Threshold: 95.0% Current: ...

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got better, 1 stayed the same, and 1 got ever so slightly worse but not significantly. Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     8.5% (same as last week but otherwise the lowest we've seen in 2023) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   7 (down from 10 last week and also the lowest we've seen in 2023) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     194 (slight uptick from last week's 193.6, but still much lower than the 248.9 the week prior) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds continues to hover around the same spot it has for a few months now, though now with reduction from 91.3% last week and 91% the week prior, it's just ever so slightly the lowest Boston has seen since November: Threshold: 95.0% Current:     90.9%

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, all got somewhat better and one even crossed below the threshold! are still worse than we saw 23-Dec-2022 (which was when these three reached the threshold) Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:     8.5% (down from 9.9% last week ) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   10 (down from 12 last week but still up from 23-Dec-2022's 11) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     193.6 (down from 248.9 the week before and finally below the threshold for the first time since 23-Dec-2022) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds is still below the threshold but just barely...and is not really getting better but instead just essentially hovering well above the target and, for 3 of the last 5 weeks, just inches from reaching the threshold of concern: Threshold: 95.0% Current: ...

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, all got better though 2 are still worse than we saw 23-Dec-2022 (which was when these three reached the threshold) Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:   9.9% (down from 11.7% last week and finally below  23-Dec-2022's 10.3% ) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   12 (down from 14 last week and the 2 prior weeks'  15 but still up from 23-Dec-2022's 11) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     248.9 (down from 283 last week but still up from 23-Dec-2022's  233.9) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds is still below the threshold but just barely...and is not really getting better but instead just essentially hovering well above the target and, for 3 of the last 5 weeks, just inches from reaching the threshold of concern: Threshold: 95.0% Current:   ...

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, all got slightly better though 2 are still more than twice the threshold and the third is still higher than it had been all of December.   Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:   11.7% (down from  13.2% which was down from  14.6% the week before ... though still up from 23-Dec-2022's 10.3% ) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   14 (down from the last 2 weeks'  15 but same as the 30-Dec-2022 and up from 23-Dec-2022's 11) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     283 (down from  303.3 but roughly the same as the week prior's  287.7 and still up from all Dec's weeks: 30-Dec-2022 -  271.9 and 23-Dec-2022 -  233.9 and below 200 before that) And the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds is still below the threshold but just barely...and is not...

Of the three thresholds for concern that had reached previously, 1 got slightly better though not enough to get back down to where we were 2 weeks ago, 1 stayed the same (which is just about as bad as that threshold can get) and 1 got progressively worse: Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:    13.2% (down from  14.6% but still up from  13.0% the prior week and 10.3% the week before that) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:    15 (same as last week, which was up from  14 the prior week and 11 the week before that) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:      303.3 (up from  287.7 last week,  271.9 the prior week week and  233.9 the week week before that) Thankfully, while the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds got worse, it is still down from 2 weeks ago and remains below the threshold, if just...

Using the cumulative cases by neighborhood from 2020 and 2021 (nope, this doesn't get old, the selection option for cumulative rates on the site reads "COVID-19 Cases and Rates by Neighborhood: Cumulative for 2020 and 2021 even in 2023) we can see that confirmed cases in Boston have come back up and by themselves would be concerning, despite being deceptive because most people are no longer testing in hospital settings, if at all.  The city-wide rate for the last week is 28 cases per 100k, which is roughly twice the threshold to reach the CDC's highest transmission rating.  But that doesn't give us the full picture as we've seen from wastewater tracking and the various threshold parameters Boston has in place.  In fact, the situation in Boston is now worse than any time other than during the Omicron wave in late December 2021/early January 2022. Three thresholds for concern that had reached previously got progressively worse worse: Test Positivity rate: Threshold: ...

Confirmed cases in Boston dipped last week, but that doesn't give us the full picture as we've seen from wastewater tracking and the various threshold parameters Boston has in place, which just points to people not testing at medical facilities as much and therefore not all cases being tracked. Three thresholds for concern that had reached previously got worse: Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:    13.0% (up from 10.3% last week) Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:    14 (up from 11 last week) Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     271.9 (up from  233.9 last week) Thankfully, the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds got better and remains below the threshold, if just barely: Threshold: 95.0% Current:     89.6% (down from  93.7% last week) Also the 7-day average emergency department visits per day hasn't i...

Confirmed cases in Boston have been slowly increasing since Thanksgiving.  Of course, this is just the cases that are confirmed in medical facilities. Several thresholds for concern have been reached and then some: Test Positivity rate: Threshold: 5.0% Current:   10.3% Number of neighborhoods with positivity rate >= 8.0% Threshold: 4 or more (of 16 total) Current:   11  Confirmed Daily Adult COVID-19 Hospitalizations (7-day moving average) Threshold: 200.0 Current:     233.9 Thankfully, the occupied adult non-surge ICU beds is still below the threshold, if just barely: Threshold: 95.0% Current:      93.7% Also the 7-day average emergency department visits per day hasn't increased for 7 consecutive days... with that said... November's full-month average: 280.6 (up from 216 last year) December's average so far: 329.6 (up from 261 for the first 22 days of Dec last year) Number of days with average > 300 in November: 9 (only 5 prior to Than...

From time to time I give Boston's COVID site a bit of flack on Facebook because they show the cumulative count of cases per neighborhood as being from 2020 and 2021 despite our now closing out 2022.  But really, I greatly appreciate that they're as transparent as they are. For instance, today I took a look at their downloadable data and can tell you that since the end of May, Boston's 7-day average hospitalization rate hovered between 130 and 175 people per day... but never reached 175... until this week... and the average from Thursday is 199.28. This roughly mimics last year where the average hospitalization rate was even lower for most of the year and never got to 175 from the end of July through early December and then reached 196 on 12-Dec.  Oh, and their threshold for concern is 200 people per day.... so, not only are we mirroring last year's hospitalization rates but we're also on the cusp of reaching one of their thresholds for concern...   Don't worry t...

A note of explanation on the below data: each number is the outcome of taking this week's data, subtracting the data from 2 weeks ago, and dividing by 14 (to get the per day) and then dividing by the population of the location (to get the per person) and then multiplying by 100,000 (to get the per 100,000 people per day) Below is the color coding for the number of cases per 100,000 people per day for each time period's reporting: Blue  - Less than 1.5 cases per 100,000 people per day  (this is approximately the " Low transmission " from the CDC) Green  - Greater than or equal to 1.5 and less than 4 cases per 100,000 people per day (included in " Moderate transmission " spread from the CDC) Yellow   - Greater than or equal to 4 and less than 8 cases per 100,000 people per day (included in " Moderate transmission " spread from the CDC which is roughly 1.5 to 7.14 cases per 100,000 people per day) Orange  - Greater than or equal to 8 and less th...