Fun with COVID-19 reporting in MA (and elsewhere)

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. Summary: New hospitalizations, and indeed all facets of hospitalizations, have stopped improving. Cases have started going back up. And the laggiest of lagging indicators, deaths, is still higher than it was at the lowest this year and more than triple what it was this time last year. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 Jun 27-Jul 3 2021       - 11.4 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021      ...

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. Summary: New hospitalizations improved but just barely while general hospital use and ICU use did not improve. Cases have stopped decreasing, which is not at all surprising given the wastewater data. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 Jun 27-Jul 3 2021       - 11.4 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022   ...

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. Summary: New hospitalizations improved but just barely, same with ICU usage. We're continuing to reduce cases but continuing to slow that reduction. Deaths are roughly static at just over 10 per day, which is about 4 times what we saw the same week last year. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 Jun 27-Jul 3 2021       - 11.4 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 20...

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. Summary: Things are definitely improving (in most ways) but we're not done yet.... not even close. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 Jun 27-Jul 3 2021       - 11.4 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (...

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week) February 2022           -100.5 March 2022               -  34.3 Mar 13-19 ...

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week) February 2022           -100.5 March 2022               -  34.3 Mar 13-19 ...

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths. New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients): Time period              - Newly admitted patients June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4  October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week) February 2022           -100.5 March 2022               -  34.3 Mar 13-19 ...

The MA wastewater tracking single-day data point on 12-May (we only have through 13-May being reported as of now) was higher than any data point in our first two waves. Now, of course, there's a reason we use 7-day averages and 14-day averages, but... this is higher than any single day and it's wastewater so it's not like it was people delaying going to the bathroom for a few days. It was higher, in fact, than any day up until Dec 1 2021. Also, the 7-day average based on all data known through 13-May is higher than it has been since January 2022 and higher than it was at any time from the end of January 2021 till the start of December 2021. Also, with cases still coming in, last week is already known to have a higher case count than the preceding week, which was already higher than all but the very last days of November through the end of January each year thus far. We are, in fact, within a wave the likes of which we have only seen in winter months till now.

Um... Monday and Tuesday this week already are known to each have more COVID cases in MA than any day going back all the way to January and more than any day between January 20, 2021 and November 28, 2021..... and more than any day prior to November 29, 2020 (yes, more than any day in the first wave)... So... the new winter wave appears to be happening in May...

New hospitalizations have now gotten above 100 people getting admitted per day and is above the average for February this year, when we were coming down from our last wave, as well as November last year, when we had been increasing for months.  This time we've reached it with just about 1.5 months of increasing. Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients) June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4 October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022           ...

Today, with several days for the numbers to grow as the information comes in on testing performed last week, we already know that last week had a higher case count than the prior week.  With that said, I was reminded today that we always need to have perspective... so here comes a few points of comparison. At 2,922 cases per day or 42.4 cases per 100,000 people per day, last week is higher than any week going back to January of this year. We're already higher than the 2,340 cases  per dayor 33.9 cases per 100,000 people per day that we saw the last full week of November 2021, but we're a far cry from the case count the following week (which had the Thanksgiving bump and saw 4,401 cases per day or 63.9 cases per 100,000 people per day). Side note: we shouldn't expect to reach 4,401 cases per day next week given the lack of huge get-together holidays till the end of this month and in the case of that holiday, most events will be outside so hopefully the bump won't be as d...

New hospitalizations, unsurprisingly since we haven't started trying to get people to turn back to being cautious, continued to climb. Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients) June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4 October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week) February 2022           -100.5 Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   -  43.3 Mar 6-...

So, last week was school vacation and wastewater tracking was showing a decrease in virus... so that should mean we're all good right?  Well, new hospitalizations would beg to differ as we saw another increase. Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients) June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4 October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week) February 2022 ...

Let's start where we always do on Wednesdays with new hospitalizations.  It's now clear that the increasing spread is causing increased hospitalizations.  The new hospitalizations last week is equivalent to what we saw in late February.  Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients) June 2021                  -  15.0 July 2021                   -  19.0  August 2021              -  61.1  September 2021        -  72.4 October 2021            -  60.3 November 2021        -  82.5 December 2021         -186.8 January 2022             -341.4 Jan 9-15 2022            -...