Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 20-Apr-2022 Edition

Let's start where we always do on Wednesdays with new hospitalizations.  It's now clear that the increasing spread is causing increased hospitalizations.  The new hospitalizations last week is equivalent to what we saw in late February. 

Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                  -  15.0
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
December 2021         -186.8
January 2022             -341.4
Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week)
February 2022           -100.5
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   -  43.3
Mar 6-12 2022          -  33.9
Mar 13-19 2022        -  29.3
Mar 20-26 2022        -  33.7
Mar 27-Apr 2 2022   -  33.4
Apr 3-9 2022             -  37.9
Apr 10-16 2022         -  55.7

And the first three days of this week averaged 60.7 per day.  Hospital use itself increased quicker last week than it had the previous week.  The week of 3-Apr only saw an increase of hospital bed use by 5 beds per day but last week that increase was up to 12 per day.  

Heading to cases, last week is now the fifth week in a row of increasing spread, with another 32% week-over-week increase.  We're now slightly higher than we were the second week of November 2021, which is the last week prior to our starting to break prior records.

June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1259.0 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.9 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021            -  1204.7 cases per day (  17.48 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -   2301.8 cases per day (  33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
December 2021        -  7471.3 cases per day (108.38 cases per 100,000 people per day)
January 2022            -12831.4 cases per day (186.15 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23204.7 cases per day (336.64 cases per 100,000 people per day) (peak week)
February 2022          -  1627.5 cases per day (  23.61 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022  -    750.3 cases per day (  10.88 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 6-12 2022         -    602.4 cases per day (    8.74 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 13-19 2022       -    661.4 cases per day (    9.60 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 20-26 2022       -    914.7 cases per day (  13.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 27-Apr 2 2022  -  1161.0 cases per day (  16.84 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Apr 3-9 2022           -  1489.7 cases per day (   21.61 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Apr 10-16 2022       -  1966.7 cases per day (   28.53 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Deaths is an interesting one this week.  Over the course of the last 7 days, we've seen the counts for the prior 2 weeks increase a bit... to the point where they stopped decreasing the week of 27-Mar and increased slightly the week of 3-Apr.  At this moment, they appear to be back to decreasing slightly but we could learn of more in the coming days.  Either way, deaths are a lagging indicator and if they haven't started going up by now, given that we're 4 weeks into the cases increasing, I would expect deaths to be increasing very soon.

June 2021                  -  3.4 per day
July 2021                   -  2.6 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 12.8 per day
October 2021            - 11.7 per day
November 2021        - 13.7 per day
December 2021        -  28.7 per day
January 2022             - 61.3 per day
Jan 16-22 2022          - 72.9 per day (peak week)
February 2022           - 37.0 per day
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   - 24.1 per day
Mar 6-12 2022          - 13.3 per day
Mar 13-19 2022        -   6.3 per day
Mar 20-26 2022        -   4.9 per day
Mar 27-Apr 2 2022   -   4.9 per day
Apr 3-9 2022             -   5.1 per day
Apr 10-16 2022         -   3.6 per day

And we'll end with the closest to real-time indicator we have: wastewater tracking.  The amount of viral RNA in our wastewater is right where it was in the middle of the first week of February, when we were still seeing around 3,000 cases per day or 46 cases per 100,000 people per day.  The good news is that the last couple days seem to indicate the viral load in our wastewater may no longer be increasing.  The bad news is that this might be due to people just not being here as families leave the state for April vacation and that could spell make for a pretty rude awakening when they return, especially with the mask mandates for transportation removed.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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