Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 09-May-2022 Edition

Today, with several days for the numbers to grow as the information comes in on testing performed last week, we already know that last week had a higher case count than the prior week.  With that said, I was reminded today that we always need to have perspective... so here comes a few points of comparison.

• At 2,922 cases per day or 42.4 cases per 100,000 people per day, last week is higher than any week going back to January of this year.
• We're already higher than the 2,340 cases  per dayor 33.9 cases per 100,000 people per day that we saw the last full week of November 2021, but we're a far cry from the case count the following week (which had the Thanksgiving bump and saw 4,401 cases per day or 63.9 cases per 100,000 people per day).
• Side note: we shouldn't expect to reach 4,401 cases per day next week given the lack of huge get-together holidays till the end of this month and in the case of that holiday, most events will be outside so hopefully the bump won't be as dramatic as a holiday where people gather to eat indoors.  That said, 30% week-over-week increases get us there plenty fast... most likely within 2 weeks.
• Last week is the second week with more cases than we had in any single week of the first wave.
• Last week now has more cases than all but 19 of the previous 112 weeks.
• We're not at the second peak of 6,068 cases per day or 88 cases per 100,000 people per day from 3-Jan-2021 and even further from the third peak of 23,198 cases per day or 336.5 cases per 100,000 people per day that we saw the week of 2-Jan-2022.
• On the other hand, this same week in 2020 saw fewer than half the case count at 1,403 cases per day or 20.4 cases per 100,000 people per day and we saw even fewer cases the same week in 2021 with 734 cases per day or 10.7 cases per 100,000 people per day.... and in both cases we were still driving the spread down significantly and would continue to do so for several weeks to come.
• In comparison to the spread reduction we were working on in 2020 and 2021, of the last 6 weeks prior to last week, we saw 5 with greater than 25% week-over-week increases to case counts.

But all of that may not concern you because, after all, many cases these days are less severe than they were in 2020 and early 2021 due to wide-spread vaccinations and better treatment availability and generally lower-hospital-usage which likely leads to better care for the individual patient.... let's throw in the current hospital stats with some perspective.

• General beds are now more used up by patients with COVID than any day going back to 20-Feb-2022.  That said, with only 604 beds in use, that's only 3 times what it was at our low point exactly 1 month ago at 200 beds on 6-Apr and a little under 1/5 what it was at our high point this year on 14-Jan-2022 at 3306 and a little over 1/7 what it was at our overall high point on 21-Apr-2020 at 3965.
• ICU usage is up to 54 beds and we have 29 patients intubated, both of which bring us back to 6-Mar-2022 to reach the same level.
• Intubations recently got as low as 7 for 2 days: 23-Apr through 24-Apr
• ICU bed use recently got as low as 25 on 21-Apr.
• At the peak in our astonishingly high wave this past winter, we reached 484 ICU beds in use on 12-Jan-2022 and 295 patients intubated on 14-Jan-2022.
• At the peak in our first wave, we reached an even higher 1089 ICU beds in use on 26-Apr-2020 and 842 patients intubated on 21-Apr-2020.
• Oh, and we started tracking patients hospitalized primarily due to COVID-19 related illness near the start of January this year... since then, we peaked at 1666 patients on 15-Jan.  Today's count of 195 is significantly lower than that peak but is also nearly 3 times as high as our low of 67 on 17-Mar, since which the number has been relatively steadily climbing.

So, all things considered, no, we aren't at a peak... and that's good.  But perhaps we can change our direction before we start hearing about hospital availability being in crisis as we started to in September 2021 after a summer of ignoring increasing spread and hospitalizations?  Also, in light of more and more attention being given to Long COVID and the mysteries it holds, perhaps we should care about more people being hospitalized and higher case counts even if they aren't threatening the healthcare system for those without COVID?  Essentially I'm not saying "throw everything at this" but perhaps "throw anything at this" is a reasonable request?