Fun with COVID-19 reporting in MA (and elsewhere)

Latest wastewater numbers from Biobot indicate that covid spread in MA continues to be basically a vertical line going up and reaching higher than it has been since January 22, 2022 (yes, 2 years ago). Why is this exactly as expected? Because as we continue to proclaim that all is fine, people will act as if it is and the annual surge in cases during the winter will increase accordingly. The 7-day average from 27-Dec-2023 suggests a spread level of 280 cases per 100,000 people per day (for comparison, original highest threshold level was 8 cases per 100,000 people per day, which was then relaxed a couple times to try to avoid shutting down every school and business and landed on 25 cases per 100,000 people per day.... so 280 is .... not great)

Most recent Middlesex, MA covid tracking shows just over 2,000 copies per mL, suggesting we were seeing roughly 270 cases per 100,000 people per day (friendly reminder that the red flag for us was initially set to 8 cases per 100,000 people per day, then relaxed to 16, and then to 25 as we tried to avoid closing all schools all the time... so we're over 10 times the most relaxed threshold).

Not that it wasn't already apparent but covid spread is definitely on the rise in MA, and in particular in Middlesex country. The latest update from BioBot is that Middlesex had 1,636 copies per mL (roughly equivalent to 218 cases per day per 100,000 people, where 8 cases per day per 100,000 people was the original highest threshold, which was later relaxed to 16 to make doing nothing seem more reasonable). Nationwide spread hasn't been at 1,636 since the start of 2022 (no, not since last winter's wave, since the winter wave before that) Admittedly, MA saw that rate at its crest in the winter of 2022-2023 but limited to Dec 23-Jan 8. https://biobotstg.wpengine.com/data/covid-19#county-25017

Covid spread continues to rise in MA with wastewater tracking showing rates we haven't seen since January. Current tracking shows the spread is greater than 120 cases per 100,000 people per day (original highest threshold was 8 cases per 100,000 people per day).  Please do what you can to limit your risks to yourself and to others you see, whether they're friends and family you're visiting or random people at the grocery store.   Every contact is a chance to cause someone to have a debilitating side effect for the rest of their lives (in addition to giving them a 10% greater chance of heart attack for a year). You can limit that chance in many ways, but the best ways are to limit your own exposures and to wear a mask.

Dear Middlesex County, MA, flattening the curve is not meant to be flattening it to be a nearly vertical line going up... For those wondering, the latest reading is 1483 copies per mL.... which is indicative of roughly 200 cases per 100,000 people per day (and keep in mind that the original identification of high spread was 8 cases per 100,000 people per day, which was then relaxed to 16... so... 200 is...) Also, last week we were at 982 copies per mL, so, yeah, the increase is dramatic. For additional comparison, the peak last winter in MA generally was 2023 copies per mL... that was in the first week of January 2023.

Latest MA wastewater tracking shows that we have, not surprisingly, seen the increase in spread continue after Thanksgiving and now have an amount of shedded virus that we would expect if we were having about 96-112 cases per 100,000 per day... that's... a lot... I used to be super alarmed when any single city/town reached that level. It's also a higher level of spread than any other time since around Feb 2023 (other than a couple of weeks earlier this fall).   Please take any precautions you're able to.