Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 2-Jul-2020 edition

  • Our numbers continue to appear to be relatively stable after 7 days. Meaning that if you look past 7 days into the 45 day window for new cases, we tend to see fluctuation of -2 to 2 overall change to that particular date's count of new cases.
  • The above makes it that much more concerning that yesterday we uncovered 113 new cases from over 45 days ago that we didn't know about before.
  • If the first comment means we can reasonably expect that the number of new cases found 7 days ago are relatively static and can be seen as "true" (ie, on July 1, we would look at Jun 24), then we've seen that on weekends we have 70-100 new cases each day and on weekdays, with 2 exceptions in the last 2 weeks, 200-260 new cases per day.... compared to the fewer than 30 new cases per day that we saw when we initially closed restaurants and bars (in the teens in the days leading up to that announcement, 26 on that day).
  • Jun 29 to Jun 30 changes in "health indicators" that should matter all took bad turns. The one "health indicator" that really shouldn't remained flat (weight average of positive molecular test rate). Of course, this was also the case exactly 7 days ago so it could just be the day of the week.
Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay mathy.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Switching to Wastewater Monitoring Only

Case counts were already somewhat misleading so, if people were actually paying attention to the wastewater and had a target and/or threshold for concern, that would actually be potentially a more reasonable thing to monitor... with that in mind, let's look at some time points to try to find some measures to consider.  Let's start with establishing a few thresholds.   Early on in the pandemic, we said 8 cases per 100,000 people per day was the highest threshold of concern (ie, that was the introduction to the highest risk-rating we had).  Later, we relaxed this a bit because we realized that this would keep us on high alert and never allow us to go back to normal ... sort of like saying that everybody is smoking so the threshold that for risking cancer shouldn't be smoking 3 cigarettes a day but instead should be a pack a day.  Based on this relaxing of concern, let's go ahead and add in 16 cases per 100,000 people per day as a threshold to monitor for, just as we did w
Read more

MA Wastewater Tracking (23-Jan-2024 data)

Image
See that little uptick at the end of each graph? This didn't happen in 2022 but did in 2023. We understood the goal in 2022 (to some degree) but since ... is there some portion of the population who says "covid spread must be down so let's go nuts"? I suspect this is partially colleges reconvening their students on campuses where in 2022 they were still trying to get their students to maintain some precautions and they haven't been since... but I also don't think this is just college campuses.
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 18-Jun-2020 edition

For those of you who like to see fun with numbers and accounting of Covid cases in Massachusetts (and also to get depressed in the morning)... Yesterday's report included an increase in the overall number of probable and confirmed cases of 266 an increase in the overall number of confirmed cases of 180 a change in the number of confirmed and probable cases that were originally traced to the last 44 days of 171 That means that at least 9 newly found confirmed cases and at least 78 OTHER newly found probable cases FROM BEFORE 44 DAYS AGO were uncovered sometime between 4pm on Tuesday and 4pm on Wednesday. Once we get past 4 days, we only see single-digit increases/decreases in uncovered cases so those numbers seem to be relatively static. We are likely to get to the 7,750 dead mark today and the 8,000 dead mark by early July. Daily hospital admissions has only slightly decreased in the last 44 days but our number of people remaining in the hospital on a given day has decreased from a
Read more