Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 31-Jul-2020 edition

So, first the amusing situation we find ourselves in where for the third straight day, there's an asterisk for the newly reported confirmed cases indicating that there was some sort of test reporting snafu, here are a large number of tests that are coming back from the past just now.

Next, we'll go with the mediocre news: over the last 8 days we saw an overall reduction of 4 people being hospitalized.... this is mediocre because back in May and June, we were seeing most days having double-digit reductions of 20 or more and only periodic increases, as in from May 16 through June 29, we saw 6 days over those 44 that had increases... and the overall count reduced by 1,864 for that time period or roughly 42 per day. So, a small decease over the last week but not a meaningful one. Similar situation for ICU and intubations where we saw a decrease of 1 and 2 respectively whereas we used to see a decrease of more than a couple every single day rather than 1 or 2 every 8 days.

Ok, now the bad news: We now see that Monday's case count was 467. To put this into perspective...
  • The weekday average (because we see many more cases reported on weekdays than weekends) for each of the preceding 4 weeks were 279, 330.2, 348.8, 359.6 (don't worry, the increase in cases isn't quit ether dramatic from the overall week of Jul 12 and Jul 19... the overall weeks were 296 and 297, then again, days in the week of July 19 can be expected to increase over the next week)
  • The last time we saw more than 400 cases in a single day was June 9.
  • The last time we saw more than 450 cases in a single day was June 3.
Ok, but that's just a one-off, right? How about the number of days above 350?
  • Week of June 28 = 0
  • Week of July 5 = 1 (that Friday)
  • Week of July 12 = 2
  • Week of July 19 = 3 (and both other weekdays are 340 and 347 so we'll see if either crosses the boundary next week)
  • We're still way too early to consider this week's numbers... each day's count is increasing daily between 90-145 so I can only imagine what they'll look like come the reports mid-next week.
We are in for a rough fall.

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay mathy.

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