Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 25-Oct-2020 edition

I'm not going to tell you about the cases just this past week tonight. I'm not going to tell you about the newly reported deaths tonight. I'm not going to tell you about the hospitalizations or the positive test rates. Instead, I'll just make some predictions:
  • Tomorrow night I'll be confirming for you that we have seen another straight week of more new cases than prior weeks. I'll also be announcing something about the number of days last week that had single day increases higher than any single day since May 19 (including the week prior).
  • A week from now I'll be confirming that we reached 10,000 deaths (among confirmed and probable cases).
  • Gov Baker will continue to (in perpetuity) demonstrate his expectation and acceptance that people are about to get thrown out of their living arrangements in high numbers. (Please remember that only a court can evict you and there are organizations available to help you should you need it).
  • In the next week, Gov Baker will do very little, if anything at all, to reduce the spread of this disease.
  • Within a week, I'll be confirming that the average weekday last week was more than 900 new cases (for comparison, the weekday average the week of May 25 was 583, Jun 15 was 220, Oct 5 was 745, and Oct 12 was 816).
  • By the end of November, we will have a week with the daily average being 1000+ (for comparison, this average the week of May 24 was 499, Jun 14 was 181, Oct 4 was 632, and Oct 11 was 698 and at our first peak in April, we saw 2177).
Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Vote Trump out in November, Vote Baker out in 2022.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Switching to Wastewater Monitoring Only

Case counts were already somewhat misleading so, if people were actually paying attention to the wastewater and had a target and/or threshold for concern, that would actually be potentially a more reasonable thing to monitor... with that in mind, let's look at some time points to try to find some measures to consider.  Let's start with establishing a few thresholds.   Early on in the pandemic, we said 8 cases per 100,000 people per day was the highest threshold of concern (ie, that was the introduction to the highest risk-rating we had).  Later, we relaxed this a bit because we realized that this would keep us on high alert and never allow us to go back to normal ... sort of like saying that everybody is smoking so the threshold that for risking cancer shouldn't be smoking 3 cigarettes a day but instead should be a pack a day.  Based on this relaxing of concern, let's go ahead and add in 16 cases per 100,000 people per day as a threshold to monitor for, just as we did w
Read more

MA Wastewater Tracking (23-Jan-2024 data)

Image
See that little uptick at the end of each graph? This didn't happen in 2022 but did in 2023. We understood the goal in 2022 (to some degree) but since ... is there some portion of the population who says "covid spread must be down so let's go nuts"? I suspect this is partially colleges reconvening their students on campuses where in 2022 they were still trying to get their students to maintain some precautions and they haven't been since... but I also don't think this is just college campuses.
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 18-Jun-2020 edition

For those of you who like to see fun with numbers and accounting of Covid cases in Massachusetts (and also to get depressed in the morning)... Yesterday's report included an increase in the overall number of probable and confirmed cases of 266 an increase in the overall number of confirmed cases of 180 a change in the number of confirmed and probable cases that were originally traced to the last 44 days of 171 That means that at least 9 newly found confirmed cases and at least 78 OTHER newly found probable cases FROM BEFORE 44 DAYS AGO were uncovered sometime between 4pm on Tuesday and 4pm on Wednesday. Once we get past 4 days, we only see single-digit increases/decreases in uncovered cases so those numbers seem to be relatively static. We are likely to get to the 7,750 dead mark today and the 8,000 dead mark by early July. Daily hospital admissions has only slightly decreased in the last 44 days but our number of people remaining in the hospital on a given day has decreased from a
Read more