Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 01-Nov-2020 edition

 Predictions made last Sunday and whether they've come true...

  • Tomorrow night I'll be confirming for you that we have seen another straight week of more new cases than prior weeks. I'll also be announcing something about the number of days last week that had single day increases higher than any single day since May 19 (including the week prior).
    • It came true and then some... go back and check out the 26-Oct-2020 edition for details but yeah.
  • A week from now I'll be confirming that we reached 10,000 deaths (among confirmed and probable cases).
    • Right like clockwork.  We've reached 10,013 deaths today
  • Gov Baker will continue to (in perpetuity) demonstrate his expectation and acceptance that people are about to get thrown out of their living arrangements in high numbers. (Please remember that only a court can evict you and there are organizations available to help you should you need it).
    • So far this is spot on.
  • In the next week, Gov Baker will do very little, if anything at all, to reduce the spread of this disease.
    • This week Baker said that people really need to stop holding parties and really need to start washing their hands.... I think he might be serious about that... tough to tell though since he continues to do absolutely nothing.
  • Within a week, I'll be confirming that the average weekday last week was more than 900 new cases (for comparison, the weekday average the week of May 25 was 583, Jun 15 was 220, Oct 5 was 745, and Oct 12 was 816).
    • Yep, this certainly happened.... in fact, 
      • the prediction came true on Monday... 
      • Today we have no single weekday from that week with fewer than 1050 new cases and the average day (including the lower weekend days) is 983... oh, and the average weekday was 1,154
      • Today, with days to go before this past Friday stops rising significantly each day, the average weekday count is already at 1,126 and the average day overall for this past week is already at 1,061
  • By the end of November, we will have a week with the daily average being 1000+ (for comparison, this average the week of May 24 was 499, Jun 14 was 181, Oct 4 was 632, and Oct 11 was 698 and at our first peak in April, we saw 2177).
    • This came to pass TODAY with this past week's average... and that average will likely go up significantly in the next few days as Friday's and Saturday's counts increase by triple digits for at least one day and double digits for a few days thereafter.
New predictions:
  • I'll continue my predictions about Baker from last week.
  • This past week will see an overall average daily cases per day higher than 1,150
  • By this time today we will have seen that this past week had another increase in cases.... that's not a typo, that's just a sure-thing considering we've already seen more cases this past week than any week going back to May 10.  So here's my real prediction: last week will surpass the average daily case count from the week of May 10 in tomorrow's reported numbers.
    • UPDATE: The first part of this statement was based on a faulty calculation.  The avg daily cases for the week of Oct 25-Oct 31 as of 01-Nov-2020 was 909.4 whereas the avg daily cases for the preceding week was 983.6.  On 02-Nov-2020 the count for the last week of October had indeed reached higher than the preceding week with 996.7 and 983.9 as updated values respectively.
  • A much less sure-thing this time: This past week's average daily deaths will be 19+ (though we may not exceed the 19.9 we saw the week of Oct 11.
  • Also less of a sure-thing, by Thanksgiving, we will have reached 10,500 deaths (confirmed + probable)

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