Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 02-Nov-2020 edition - the numbers

Yesterday I predicted that today we would see last week reach the case count from May 10.  We didn't quite make it.  We may still yet, as it would only take 541 more cases to be uncovered and I would expect that in tomorrow's report, Friday and Saturday's counts will increase by triple digits and Tuesday's through Thursday's counts will increase by double digits.  We may not make it tomorrow, or the next day, but I will extend the prediction to be by the end of the week.

I have to take a moment here to admit to a calculation error yesterday whereby I suggested that we had already seen more cases last week than the week before.  This was not the case.... but it is now.  

By the way, with the new math the state is using to determine hospital headcount, we increased by 7.5% yesterday (new count is 469, the day's increase is 33, so yesterday would have been 436 has we been using the current calculation and 33/436= voila, 7.5% increase in one day).  Now, that isn't to say that we won't see a decrease tomorrow or that we should expect to continue to see 7.5% increases regularly... but we saw a 6.6% increase a couple days ago, a 6.1% increase about a week ago and have seen the single day decrease in the last 8 days dwarfed by the increases of 5 of the other 7 days.

The death rate for last week is lining up to be 18 or 19 per day.  We'll see what it ends up being soon, but it looks like it's going to be a third straight week that is higher than anything seen in July, August, and September (and up until October 10). 

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

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