Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 08-Nov-2020 edition

What can I say?... this past week, not yet fully known given that the cases associated with each day will continue increase for the next week,  saw an average of 1,282.1 per day.  There was no weekday last week with fewer than 1,200 new cases, whereas there was no day from May 19 through October 20 that reached 1,200 cases... in fact, from May 21 through October 18 there was no day that reached 1,000 and no day from June 3 through September 7 that even reached 500.

Already, we see that Monday through Thursday (yes, all 4 days) had higher single day counts than any day before last week going back through May 8.  We'll see in the next week if Friday joins the rest of the weekdays (just needs 317 more cases to be found and I would expect that to take place)

The average daily change to hospitalizations per month...

  • Jun - Negative 32.9 (remember when we used to be trying to reduce the spread?)
  • Jul - Negative 12.61 
  • Aug - Negative 0.87 
  • Sep 3.86
  • Oct: 5.7
  • So far in Nov: 18.8

The average daily deaths per month...

  • May - 100.5 (back when we still didn't know anything about how to treat COVID-19)
  • Jun - 29.5 (remember when Gov Baker cared about the people dying... or at least the image of it?)
  • Jul - 16
  • Aug - 14.2 
  • Sep 13.9 
  • Oct: 17.3
  • So far in Nov: 20.6 (not counting the most recent day we have data for since that day has tended to double in the following day's report)

Lastly, a follow up on my predictions from last week and new predictions for this one:

  • Continuation of my predictions about Baker from last week (that he won't do anything substantive to slow COVID-19. - I mean, this coming true should really not surprise anybody.
  • "This past week will see an overall average daily cases per day higher than 1,150" - yep, this happened
  • "By this time today we will have seen that this past week had another increase in cases.... that's not a typo, that's just a sure-thing considering we've already seen more cases this past week than any week going back to May 10.  So here's my real prediction: last week will surpass the average daily case count from the week of May 10 in tomorrow's reported numbers." - Ok, so this didn't happen the next day but the day after that, we had, and today we sit at 1172.8 (May 10 was 1074.4).  I consider this a partially correct prediction (and indeed, I updated the prediction on Monday to say it would occur by Wednesday and it did occur on Tuesday) 
  • "A much less sure-thing this time: This past week's average daily deaths will be 19+ (though we may not exceed the 19.9 we saw the week of Oct 11." - Yep, we stand at 19 deaths per day for that week.
  • "Also less of a sure-thing, by Thanksgiving, we will have reached 10,500 deaths (confirmed + probable)" - This one is still outstanding.  As of last Sunday we would have needed to see 19.48 deaths per day from then on... now we would need to see 19.5 per day from here on... with that said, Sunday through Thursday look to have had 10.6 per day average so... we'll see what happens.
New Predictions:
Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

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