Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 15-Nov-2020 edition

Last week's COVID-19 cases are ALREADY higher than the previous week, even though they'll still be coming in for days.  By tomorrow, we'll see that last week had more cases than the week of April 26, bringing us to another milestone in matching the peak of our first wave.  At that point, only the weeks of April 12 and April 19 will have had greater case counts.

Tuesday was a higher single day case count (already) than all but 4 days (except Monday).  Monday had 152 more cases (so far) than the single highest day before (bar none).  Wednesday and Thursday already saw a higher case counts than any day from May 2 through Nov 2.

We're approaching the death rate we last saw the week of June 21 (average was 23.85 that week, 23 so far in the last 6 days).

Oh, and we've now had 10 straight days of increased hospital use.

A quick review of last week's predictions:

  • I continued my predictions about Baker not doing anything significant to stop the spread.
    • Yep
  • My prediction was that by the end of the week, the prior week's average will turn out to be higher than 1,350.
    • At 1,767, that more than checks out. 
  • By this time, no single weekday from the week of Nov 1 will have had fewer than 1522 cases.
    • Excluding this past Friday, no weekday has had fewer than 1897 (and that low-limit was set on Nov 2).
  • This past week's average daily deaths will be 20+
    • 21.28 - check
  • Continued prediction: By Thanksgiving, we will have reached 10,500 deaths (confirmed + probable)
    • Hardly seems in doubt now, with only 171 to go, we'd need an average of 17 deaths per day... and this last 6 days saw an average of 23.
New predictions:
  • By this time next week, this past week will have reached an average case count of 1,900.
  • By this time next week, there will be no weekday from this past week that did not see at least 2,000 cases.
Stay safe. Stay Sane. Stay informed. Stay understanding we're fully in April and are still pushing people to behave in risky behavior so we can avoid government support being provided.

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