Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 22-Nov-2020 Edition

The week before this past week now sits with an average fo 2,416 cases per day, compared to the next highest week back in April of 2,177.  That's a difference of 239 per day... we saw fewer than 238 on average for 6 weeks the past summer!  We even saw a period of 18 straight days where we never reached 238 cases.  The difference between the weeks of Nov 1 and Nov 8 is 641.8... or an increase of 36 percent!  This is not a slow increase we're seeing.  A 36% week-over-week increase is something we've only seen twice since April 5, and of course both of those were in the prior 3 weeks (there was a slight reprieve of only a 15 percent increase the week before last).

This past Monday's case count is higher than any other day, bar none.  Tuesday's case count is already higher than all but 4 days, 2 of which are in the previous week and 2 of which are in April.

We've reached the death rate we last saw the week of June 21 (average was 23.85 that week, 24.43 last week and 24 so far in the last 6 days).

The good news is we actually did see hospitalizations decrease for 2 days....  on the other hand, in the last 7 days, which includes the 2 day decrease, has seen an overall 21% increase in hospitalizations (we've also seen a 143% increase in the last 30 days).  By the way, ICU has seen a 20% increase in the last 7 days and 156% increase in the last 30 and intubations have increased 26% in the last 7 days and 159% in the last 30.

A quick review of last week's predictions:
  • My prediction was that by the end of the week, the prior week's average will turn out to be higher than 1,900.
    • At 2,416, that more than checks out. 
  • By this time, no single weekday from the week of Nov 8 will have had fewer than 2,000 cases.
    • The lowest count is 2,605, so, yeah.
  • Continued prediction: By Thanksgiving, we will have reached 10,500 deaths (confirmed + probable)
    • We reached that today, so, check.

New predictions:
  • By this time next week, last week's average will turn out to be higher than 2,500 cases/day.
  • By this time next week, no single weekday from this past week will have fewer than 2,800 cases
  • By Christmas' report, we will have reached 11,500 deaths (confirmed + probable)

Stay safe. Stay Sane. Stay informed. Stay understanding we're now fully beyond April's case counts and are still pushing people to behave in risky behavior so we can avoid government support being provided.... and please stay home this Thanksgiving.

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