Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 28-Nov-2020 Edition

The week before this past week now sits with an average fo 2,573 cases per day, compared to the week before with 2,414 and the next highest week back in April of 2,177.  The spread seemed to have slowed, which is great, but, well, Thanksgiving and all...

Until Nov 9, we had not seen any single day with more than 2,990 cases.... In the 3 weeks since, we've already seen 3 and, given that this past week has Monday already at 2,895 and Tuesday already at 2,704, I think it's safe to say we'll have seen 2 or 3 more by this time next week.

We've reached the death rate we last saw the week of June 14 (average was 26.14 that week, 27 last week and 27.5 rom this week's Sun-Wed counts, Thurs is still too soon to know).

Hospitalizations yesterday grew more than any day since April 21.  The average increase over the last 7 days was 22 and the average increase for the preceding 7 days (including 2 days of decreases) was 29.7...  just for comparison, from May through September, we only saw 31 days (of 184 days) with an increase of more than 20... also for comparison, in the 27 days of November so far, we've seen 14 with more than 20. 

Oh, also, hospitalization headcount is now 239% what it was at the end of October, ICU 261%, and intubations 236% (in other words, all have much more than doubled in just the last 27 days).

The Baker Administration loves to use the positive test rate to indicate whether we're doing ok....well, if you discount higher education testing, our 7-day average hasn't dipped below 4% for all of November and most of the time has been spent at higher than 5% (4% is what they consider a transition point to higher risk for larger populations, 5% for smaller populations).  Before November, the last time we were this high was in June.  Mind you, this is percent of tests overall, not percent of individuals tested.  Epidemiology experts have told us that the percent of tests overall is not the mark we should be using, but this is where we are with the reporting because that's what Baker wants us to see.

All this and the Baker administration has come out with an advertisement that downplays the situation.  "What are you excited to do when we return to normal?  We're not there yet so please wear a mask and stay 6 feet away from people."  So... keep going to restaurants and other stores so we don't have to provide them any real support, make sure you have as many networks of people operating by going to work, going to businesses, and having kids go to school in-person... and don't blame us for what's going on since clearly it's entirely your own fault?  Really?  Well, I'm sure Thanksgiving will see a decrease in cases because people were asked to limit their travel and distance themselves from others when enjoying their gatherings.

Stay safe. Stay Sane. Stay informed. Stay understanding we're now fully beyond April's case counts and are still pushing people to behave in risky behavior so we can avoid government support being provided.