Outside MA: CA, FL, IL, NC, PA, TX and D.C. Thanksgiving week follow up

Periodically, I look at states and countries where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid. 

Today let's go back over the non-New England states I looked at earlier in November: California, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington D.C.

For comparison, MA reached 2.2 cases per 100,000 people per day in between waves and has since increased to roughly 37 (having been increasing for 4 and a half months).

California did the best with stopping the curve early and driving the cases down before re-opening and as a result of their efforts to limit the spread were still seeing only 11 cases per 100,000 people per day on Nov 3.  They then saw a rather sizable increase over November, now seeing 32.1 cases per 100,000 people per day.

Florida peaked way higher than anybody I've seen in the USA in my reviews and stopped short of reducing their cases to below 10 cases per 100,000 people.  The result of their recent efforts had them sitting at 20 cases per 100,000 on Nov 3 and increasing to 36.5 now.  They had increased their cases by 75% in the roughly 5 weeks at the start of Nov and then by 82% in the 3 weeks since.

Illinois saw a similar first wave but slightly larger, reaching 20 cases per 100,000 at the start of May, then worked on reducing that and bottomed out at 5 in the middle of June.  Just like Pennsylvania and Massachusetts and so many others, they then steadily increased through the rest of the summer.  Their steep increase came in October (and continues).  Mid October they were at 26 cases per 100,000, On Nov 9 they were at 72 and since then they've slowed their increase and almost looks like they've stabilized, though in the last 7 days they saw 89.4 cases per 1000,000 per day.  

North Carolina saw a steady increase all the way into July, finally "peaking" in mid July at 19 cases per 100,000.  I put that in quotes because I wouldn't say they drove the cases down... a month and a half later, at the start of Sep, they stopped reducing cases, having reached 11 cases per 100,000.  They have since then continued to increase again seeing 19 cases per 100,00 in mid-Oct, 23 by Nov 9, and now 33.2.  

Pennsylvania started by reaching 13 cases per 100,000 population in its first wave in the very beginning of April and then driving their cases down to 3 near the middle of June.  Certainly nothing to sneeze at but even we in MA reached 2.2.  They have steadily been increasing since then, with the last couple months being a steeper incline.  Mid October they were at 11 cases per 100,000 Nov 9, they were at at 23 and now they are at 50.2!

Texas may not have seen the same peak as Florida but they made up for it by starting to see their decline in cases stopped sooner.  They dipped to 11.3 at the start of Sep and started increasing again and rebounded with 2.1 times as many cases in the 7 days leading up to Nov 3 as 24-30 days prior with 23.8 cases per 100,000 per day.... and have seen a 70% increase in the last 3 weeks and are now sitting at 40.4.

Washington D.C. has done its citizenry just about as well as California has, coming just higher than them in all counts except for where they drove the case count lower, reaching 4.7 cases per day per 100,000.  They've since also come back to the red with 13 cases per day per 100,000 as of Nov 3 but that's over the course of 4 months!  Sadly, the last 3 weeks have not been as kind as those 4 months, and they've nearly doubled their cases, now reaching 25.6.  As bad as doubling the rate in 3 days is, they're still doing better than any state reviewed in this pack and better than 2/3 of the New England states.

Summary:

• California did pretty decently over the summer but went from 11 cases per 100k people per day on Nov 3 to 32.1 today.
• Florida did pretty poorly over the summer but only went from 20 cases per 100k people per day on Nov 3 to 36.5 now. 
• Illinois has had a far worse fall than most but may have steadied out in the last couple weeks and are now at 89.4 cases per 100k per day.  
• North Carolina essentially has been increasing slowly with a really shallow dip in the summer and now sits at 33.2 cases per 100k per day. 
• Pennsylvania did a decent job of driving down their cases but, like MA, has just seen their cases rebound and seen a steep climb going from 11 cases per 100k per day in mid Oct to 23 in early Nov to now 50.2!
• Texas, similar to Florida, did a bad job over the summer and has, after giving up on their lackluster attempt to drive down cases, seen their cases rebound.  They dipped to 11.3 at the start of Sep, increased to 23.8 by Nov 3, and now have reached 40.4.
• Washington D.C. is the bright spot of the bunch, driving their cases lower during their valley between waves and seeing their increase much slower than other states and now sits at 25.6 cases per 100k per day.

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.