Outside MA: New England

Periodically, I look at states and countries where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid.

Today, let's take a look at the other states in New England.

All 6 states in New England are seeing a significant increase in cases.  Period.  Full Stop.  

Oh, you want more details?  That's totally reasonable.

Over the last 23 days (using average cases newly reported from Oct 3-Oct 9 and from Oct 26-Nov 1), cases have doubled their cases, with the exception of Vermont with only increased by 50%.  In fact, Connecticut is seeing new cases nearly 3 times more than at the start of the 30-day period.  Main is only seeing 2.6 times and Rhode Island is "only" seeing 2.26 times.  

But that just tells us how quickly we're all getting worse. For example, Vermont's new rate per 100k is still only 2.8, which is well below the yellow mark here in MA.  Maine, is in the yellow with a rate of 5.5.  The rest... well... New Hampshire has 9.3, Massachusetts has 18.7, Connecticut has 20.7, and Rhode Island has 37.1!  

New England states, in particular the southern trio, are not doing well.  But maybe we never had a chance?  To determine that, let's go back and look at the low point.  These are all eyeballed but, the rate per 100k people for each state is as follows (with the current rate in parenthesis):

  • Vermont 02-Sep through 08-Sep:         0.4 (2.8)
  • Maine 04-Aug through 10-Aug:           0.8 (5.5)
  • New Hampshire 15-Aug-21-Aug:        1.1 (9.3)
  • Connecticut 01-Aug through 07-Aug:  2.0 (20.7)
  • Massachusetts 15-Jun through 21-Jun: 2.2 (18.7)
  • Rhode Island 27-Jun through 03-Jul:    4.4 (37.1)

Note that the lowest rate the state achieved correlates highly to where the state is now.  We've all multiplied those low counts by 6.5-10, with New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Massachusetts having multiplied by 8.3-8.7. 

Also, did you notice that only one state had a low point within the last 2 months?  That's right, we've ALL been increasing since since at least part way through the Summer, though MA and RI have been increasing for longer than the rest.

Guess we're in for a cold winter.

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

MA Wastewater Tracking (23-Jan-2024 data)

Image
See that little uptick at the end of each graph? This didn't happen in 2022 but did in 2023. We understood the goal in 2022 (to some degree) but since ... is there some portion of the population who says "covid spread must be down so let's go nuts"? I suspect this is partially colleges reconvening their students on campuses where in 2022 they were still trying to get their students to maintain some precautions and they haven't been since... but I also don't think this is just college campuses.
Read more

Boston-proper COVID-19 status update (8-Oct-2020 data)

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9->9.2->11 (please get back to trying to get to yellow) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1->4.0->3.7 (welcome back to green) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0->12.3->15.7 (um, gang? are you aiming at overtaking East Boston?) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8->5.7->6.7 (and back to the high 6's we go) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4->20->17.7 (yes, back to reducing, keep it going) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7->6.7->6.2 Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7->6.5->10.3->13 (didn't take long to go from green to red to deeper red, please return to green soon) Jamaica Plain: 7.9->7.2->5.5->5.8->4.9->6.7 (heading back up) Mattapan: 5.2->5.5->3.8->3.8->7.9...
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 07-Oct-2020 Greater-Greater Somerville local edition

Image
(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington (green) - I mean, good job at staying in green but... try to get back where you were (even if everybody else is just trying to get to green): 0.2->0.6->1.6->2.3->2.2->1.9->3.1->2.5. Boston (getting redder) - Continuing to get worse, going from 8.5 last week to 10 this week... glad you decided to go remote for your public schools. Cambridge (green) - You're really liking the mid 2's which you've now been for 3 weeks. You're in a race with Arlington for greenest neighbor of Somerville. Chelsea (RED!) - I was so excited last week ... but no, you've regressed 2 weeks now. Get better soon. 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->22.4->18.8->22.4.  Fitchburg (green) - Took a turn toward yellow but still very green... there's pretty much a three-way tie for snapshot green but...
Read more