Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 01-Dec-2020 Edition

A week and 2 days ago, I predicted that by this past Sunday, there would be no weekday from the week of Nov 15 with fewer than 2,800 new cases.  I was 2 days off because today the last weekday with under 2,800 that week reached 2,844.  Keep in mind that from May 21 through October 18 we had no single day that even reached 1,000 new cases and that from May 2 through November 3 we had no single day that reached 2,000 new cases... Hell, take it a step further and note that there were only 2 days prior to November 9 that reached 2,800 and that in the 22 days since Nov 9 (around half of which are still seeing increases), we've seen 10 such days already!  There were no days until Nov 9 that reached 3,000... there have been 5 such cases since, including 3,512 on Nov 16.

Let's shift our eyes to hospitals.  From April 22 through November 9 (202 days), there had been 6 days where hospitalizations rose by 40 or more patients, 1 day where hospitalizations rose by 50 or more patients and 0 days where they rose by 60+ ... since November 10 (20 days), there have been the same number (6) of days where hospitalizations rose by 40 or more, 4 days where hospitalizations rose by 50 or more, and Sunday's hospitalizations didn't just increase by more than 60, it didn't just increase by more than 70 or 80, it increased by 93 patients!  

And in case we weren't depressed enough by the above numbers, last week's death rate ticked up above the preceding week.  The week of Nov 15 that 27 deaths per day and the week of Nov 22 now sits at 29.7.

I think it's time for some new predictions about this week.  By Dec 13th we'll find that

  • No weekday this week will have been below 3,000 new cases.
  • The average daily increase in cases for this week will have been above 2,800.
  • The average deaths per day for this week will have been at least 30 (putting us very much on track to reach the 11,500 by Christmas).

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.


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