Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 07-Dec-2020 edition

Figured I'd start by returning us to the predictions from 1-Dec since, well, you'll see.

  • By Dec 13th, the week of Nov 29-Dec 5 would have seen no weekday below 3,000 new cases
    • This is already the case with Friday's case count being the only one under 4,400 and today reaching 3,048... I expect the increase tomorrow to be in the hundreds and likely reach 4,000 by the end of the week.
  • By Dec 13th, average daily increase in cases for the week of Nov 29-Dec 5 will have been above 2,800.
    • This is also already the case with the average already at 3,751 per day and the numbers still jumping significantly each day.
  • Continued prediction: By Christmas, we will have reached 11,500 deaths (confirmed + probable)
    • We're already at 11,019 deaths and we're seeing 30+ deaths per day with half of the last 8 days being 40+...  and to reach this prediction, we would only need to see 18 deaths per day.  Instead, I now predict we'll reach 11,500 deaths by December 20 and 12,000 by the end of the year.
We've also increased hospital usage by 100 patients.... From April 21 until yesterday we had not seen a day where we increased by 100 patients.  In fact, the only days with 65+ increases since April 21 have been in the last 8 days where we saw 93 on Nov 29, 68 on Dec 1, 65 on Dec 2, 70 on Dec 3, and 100 yesterday.  Yes, that's right, we went from ever seeing increases of 65+ to having 5 out of 8 days reaching that high count.  To pain the picture a little clearer, from April 22 through November 9 (202 days), there had been 6 days where hospitalizations rose by 40 or more patients and only 1 day where hospitalizations rose by 50 or more patients and 0 days of 60+.  Hell, you can extend that time window through Nov 15 and see the same count of days for hospitalizations rising by 50+ or 60+.  

ICU use and intubations continue to increase as well.  Intubations increased 10% yesterday alone.  Intubations increased by 14 yesterday.  To find another day that had that high an increase, you have to go back to May 10.  Going back to April 26, we'd only seen 5 days where there were 10+ more patients day-over-day being intubated.  In the last 30 days we've seen 4 such days.  

But don't worry, the Baker administration has confirmed that everything is still on the table so I'm sure they'll do something before the situation gets much worse than it was in April... oh, right, it already has.  What exactly are they waiting for?

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay blaming Gov Baker for the current situation in MA

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