Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 12-Dec-2020 Edition

Prediction check in time.

  • On Dec 1st, I predicted that by Dec 13th, the week of Nov 29-Dec 5 would have seen no weekday below 3,000 new cases.  On Dec 7th, I updated this to be 4,000 by the end of the week (today).
    •  Well... damn... I was technically right but I was so off on this.  No weekday from last week was lower than 5,245 as of today.  
  • On Dec 1st, I predicted that by Dec 13th, the average daily increase in cases for the week of Nov 29-Dec 5 will have been above 2,800.  
    • On Dec 7th, this was already the case and then some with 3,751 cases per day.  This prediction has proven to be super low given the actual scenario that we've found ourselves in where 4,605.2 cases per day on average.
  • Continued prediction: [updated Dec 7th because the old prediction was definitely far too low at 11,500] By Christmas, we will have reached 12,000 deaths (confirmed + probable)
    • So... at first glance, this may seem like an unlikely scenario to take place, given that we would need to see more than 54 deaths per day to be uncovered each day going forward and that last week averaged 40.7.  That said... the week before last averaged 32.7 and the week before that averaged 26.9 and hospitals are running out of capacity quickly.  You can see where I'm going with this.  I stand by my prediction that there will be 12,000 deaths by Dec 25.  

New Predictions:
  • Cases:
    • By this time next week, the week of Dec 6-Dec 11 will have no weekdays below 5,000 cases per day.
    • By this time next week, the average for the week of Dec 6-Dec 11 will be 4,750 or higher.
  • Deaths:
    • Continued prediction: By Christmas, we will have reached 12,000 deaths (confirmed + probable).
    • New Prediction: By this time next week, we will have reached 11,500 deaths.
Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay blaming Gov Baker for the current situation in MA

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

MA Wastewater Tracking (23-Jan-2024 data)

Image
See that little uptick at the end of each graph? This didn't happen in 2022 but did in 2023. We understood the goal in 2022 (to some degree) but since ... is there some portion of the population who says "covid spread must be down so let's go nuts"? I suspect this is partially colleges reconvening their students on campuses where in 2022 they were still trying to get their students to maintain some precautions and they haven't been since... but I also don't think this is just college campuses.
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 13-Oct-2020 edition

Last week's case count is already higher than any other week going back until May 17... which was the case last week but now we're able to report that again because, even though cases will keep increasing for last week for a couple more days, we're over the total from the previous week by 189, or an average of 27/day. Also... we've now seen 2 straight weeks with every single weekday having more new cases than any single day from May 29 through Sept 23 (and that run of large-case-count weekdays starts on Sep 28... so...) Last week also saw 4 straight days with only 1 day of higher case count going back through May 27... including the immediately preceding week. Testing, with 1 exception, has been above 3.0% for individuals for the last 20 days. For comparison, the same rate was below 2.5%, with the exception of 1 day, from July 5 through September 2.... oh, and 13 of the last 20 days that percentage was 3.5% or higher and 4 of the last 15 were 4.0% or higher.... 2 of the...
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 27-Oct-2020 edition

Well, yesterday we had 2 weekdays under 1000 cases last week, today we have no weekdays under 1050, which means that there is NO day between May 19 and the start of last week that reaches the count of ANY weekday last week. This far exceeds my prediction that the average for the weekdays last week would have had 900+ cases by the close of this week... the average weekday cases was 1,111.6. Thursday of last week now has reached 1343 cases, which brings us back to May 12 looking for a day as bad. The week saw an average of 923 cases per day (Sunday has 327 and Saturday, which is still increasing, saw 581) which means we are no longer looking at the week of May 17 for a week that exceeded and now have to look at May 10. Oh, also, the comparison of the average from last week to the one before? Yeah, we increased by 30 percent! Month over month? We DOUBLED! Hospital usage, ICU usage, and intubation counts are all up too, so no bright spot there. The 3-day average hospital usage from exactly...
Read more