Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 21-Mar-2021 Edition (bite sized)

It's been a little while since I've done a prediction ... but here's one.  I predict that this time next week, we'll see that this past week is the second straight week of increased cases.  This is a pretty safe bet considering we saw a daily average of 1,342.14 the week of Feb 28 followed by 1,384.86 the week of Mar 7, and are already at 1,319.29 for this past week, with days to go and several hundred new cases likely coming in for Friday and Saturday, never mind the smaller increases we'll see for the rest of the week.  What's not as clear is whether we'll have gotten all the way back to mid February rates of 1,485-1,500, but I'd go so far as to say that it's quite likely and include this in my prediction.  I don't expect however, that we'll have returned to early February rates of 1,793-2,367 already, but I certainly see this in our future.  A few comparisons to last year are in order here just to put these numbers into perspective:
  • At our first peak last April, we had a Sunday-to-Saturday peak average daily rate of 2,177.14 for the week of April 12.  This can also be measured in cases per 100,000 per day which was 31.6.
  • Within 5 weeks of that peak, we got down to 852.43 cases per day for the week of May 17.  Within 6 we were down to 498.29.  Compare that to having 2,367 cases per day the week of Jan 31, 2021 and getting down to 1,384.86 five weeks later.  Sure, we started slightly higher, but not several hundred cases per day higher.... and 6 weeks after Jan 31, 2021 were looking at coming close to triple what we saw 6 weeks after the April 2020 peak.
This seems like the perfect time for us to relax our precautions and open up as many networks of people as possible, doesn't it?

Stay Safe. Stay Sane. Stay Informed. Stay Vigilant.

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