Coming This Summer, Asymptomatic Spread

Disclaimer, I am not speaking on behalf of any organization I may be part of or employed by or have any kind of connection to.  The numbers are based only on the very preliminary data available to all and the sources are at the bottom of the rant.  

Ok, it's math time...  let's say that the estimates of the vaccines being 75%-90% effective at preventing asymptomatic cases of COVID-19... let's further pretend that our population of 0-19 year olds is equally distributed and say that we continue to distribute the vaccine through the end of June at the current rate which is roughly 1% per day for first dose... today we have 46.7% vaccinated across all age groups and 5.2% of those under 20 specifically.  In 3 weeks, those who are partially vaccinated should be fully vaccinated (hopefully).  6 weeks thereafter gets us near end of June and brings us to 84% total vaccinated rate... which would mean that in this proposed future, at the end of June, literally everyone 16 and older is fully vaccinated (if you're questioning this, just bear with me), which is great, except... let's take a look at what that does to the spread in kids... 

With literally every adult vaccinated (which won't happen because there are plenty who will refuse to get vaccinated), the spread among that population may decrease to roughly 1/4 to 1/10 what it would be if they weren't vaccinated.  Many people are staying sequestered or limiting their interactions and many more are taking precautions like wearing a mask and staying 6 feet apart.... how many more interactions will people that have partially or wholly removed themselves from networks will take part in?  Let's pretend for a moment that it's 4-10 times as many interactions without these precautions in place, though I suspect it will be much more (especially as we continue to open up to fully re-opened status).  Suddenly we see that the spread is going to happen roughly the same as it is now, if not more so.  What's worse: in the summer, people, and kids in particular, have a ton more networks open up than during the fall, winter, and spring.  People go on vacations.  Kids go to camps, sometimes to more than one group activity in a given day.  Each of these networks is another new opportunity for COVID-19 to spread.  Furthermore, with the spread being significantly more in an asymptomatic method percentage-wise, that means that significantly more spread will be occurring without our knowing it... and with kids getting sick more, how likely is it that people will say "meh, he just has a cold" and continue to engage in all the networks?  And it gets worse because as we see symptomatic spread go down, we will see more and more pressure to just return to pre-COVID behaviors, especially among fully vaccinated people but also just in general.

"But Peter," I hear you say, "kids don't get impacted as badly as adults so if we remove severe cases in adults and just let it spread like wildfire in kids, that's fine, right?  That's totally acceptable and reasonable, right? Right? RIGHT?"  I have three things to remind you about: 

1) kids are already dying from COVID-19... sure they all likely have pre-existing conditions, but... how many kids are you ok with dying just because they have comorbidities?  

2) kids suffer from other, potentially life-long adverse effects from catching this thing, and that includes both physical and mental issues.  

3) (and here's the really really scary scenario) the more spread COVID-19 sees, the more mutations it goes through and the more likely it will change into something that evades the immune response that we will have developed through the vaccines.

I don't know what else to say except that I expect many won't take this into consideration and that just about the only thing I can really do is remove myself from the world of networks as best I can.  So when you see me, if you see me, expect me to try to stay further than 6 feet from you, expect to see me masked, expect me not to go inside... and in case it hasn't been clear, expect me to be distressed (including at being forced into a situation where I am seeing you).  

Getting vaccinated is incredibly important.  It nearly removes the potential for the individual to get severe COVID-19 and frees up the hospitals for everything hospitals were being used for before COVID-19 and generally frees up healthcare resources.  If we maintain our vigilance, the vaccination would likely reduce the spread significantly as even asymptomatic cases may reduce to only 1/4 or 1/10 what it would be otherwise.  Vaccines are HUGELY important in this fight, but so is maintaining our efforts to actually stop the spread... and that second part has been our problem for over a year now and I suspect it will be more and more an issue for us.... and of course, the above rant predicates that we will actually get most adults vaccinated, which is far from a guarantee.

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay mathy.

Sources:

• Spread after vaccination:
• https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/vaccines-prevent-asymptomatic-infection-key-ending-pandemic-rcna444
• https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22291959/covid-vaccines-transmission-protect-spread-virus-moderna-pfizer
• Current vaccination rates per age group (and general age group population numbers): https://pioneerinstitute.org/vaccine/?utm_campaign=Post%3A%20%22NEW%3A%20Pioneer%27s%20COVID%20vaccine%20tracker%20lets%20you...%22&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid&hsa_acc=514791035201542&hsa_cam=6250866945382&hsa_grp=6250866947182&hsa_ad=6250866948182&hsa_src=fb&hsa_net=facebook&hsa_ver=3&fbclid=IwAR04J7onGX-oYuW6FpN9I6SHIwIlDrfiWgI2ahrdySGpsctScE-yRtpZd4k
• Deaths among 0-19 year olds (in MA, we appear to average around 1 every 2-4 weeks so far this year): https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting