Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 10-May-2021 Edition

Just wanted to quickly take note that I was both right and wrong at the start of last week in my predictions.

I had predicted that cases last week would be higher than the week before.  They weren't.  That said, the decrease slowed.  
  • Apr 4-10 daily average: 1866
  • Apr 11-17 daily average: 1577
  • Apr 18-24 daily average: 1208
  • Apr 25-May 1 daily average: 1011
The good news is that it does seem like we're still decreasing as we move into May, with this last week (May 2-8) appearing to be tracking lower than the preceding week.  We likely won't see a decrease of 300, but a decrease of 200 doesn't seem unlikely... and this would bring us to mid-May 2020 and mid-Oct 2020 levels.

So... that was the good news.  The bad news is what I was right about.  Deaths had another barely-there increase the last week of April, though we're still below where we were at the start of April.
  • Apr 4-10 daily average: 12.3
  • Apr 11-17 daily average: 9.7
  • Apr 18-24 daily average: 10.3
  • Apr 25-May 1 daily average: 10.9
Here again, we have potential good news: deaths the week of May 2-8 appear to be tracking slightly lower than even Apr 11-17.  

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

MA Wastewater Tracking (23-Jan-2024 data)

Image
See that little uptick at the end of each graph? This didn't happen in 2022 but did in 2023. We understood the goal in 2022 (to some degree) but since ... is there some portion of the population who says "covid spread must be down so let's go nuts"? I suspect this is partially colleges reconvening their students on campuses where in 2022 they were still trying to get their students to maintain some precautions and they haven't been since... but I also don't think this is just college campuses.
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 13-Oct-2020 edition

Last week's case count is already higher than any other week going back until May 17... which was the case last week but now we're able to report that again because, even though cases will keep increasing for last week for a couple more days, we're over the total from the previous week by 189, or an average of 27/day. Also... we've now seen 2 straight weeks with every single weekday having more new cases than any single day from May 29 through Sept 23 (and that run of large-case-count weekdays starts on Sep 28... so...) Last week also saw 4 straight days with only 1 day of higher case count going back through May 27... including the immediately preceding week. Testing, with 1 exception, has been above 3.0% for individuals for the last 20 days. For comparison, the same rate was below 2.5%, with the exception of 1 day, from July 5 through September 2.... oh, and 13 of the last 20 days that percentage was 3.5% or higher and 4 of the last 15 were 4.0% or higher.... 2 of the...
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 27-Oct-2020 edition

Well, yesterday we had 2 weekdays under 1000 cases last week, today we have no weekdays under 1050, which means that there is NO day between May 19 and the start of last week that reaches the count of ANY weekday last week. This far exceeds my prediction that the average for the weekdays last week would have had 900+ cases by the close of this week... the average weekday cases was 1,111.6. Thursday of last week now has reached 1343 cases, which brings us back to May 12 looking for a day as bad. The week saw an average of 923 cases per day (Sunday has 327 and Saturday, which is still increasing, saw 581) which means we are no longer looking at the week of May 17 for a week that exceeded and now have to look at May 10. Oh, also, the comparison of the average from last week to the one before? Yeah, we increased by 30 percent! Month over month? We DOUBLED! Hospital usage, ICU usage, and intubation counts are all up too, so no bright spot there. The 3-day average hospital usage from exactly...
Read more