Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 15-May-2021 Edition

While we had a rough end of this week with the CDC issuing guidance that was predictably dumbed down and generalized by everyone, and was not based on risks to the populace but instead based on the push to get people vaccinated, we did see that things continued to get better here in MA.

Cases continued to decrease.  Note that cases are still coming in, and indeed we found roughly 14 more cases the previous 2 weeks since the last time I reported out these numbers, but it's still pretty clear that there is continued slow in spread.

  • Apr 4-10 daily average: 1866
  • Apr 11-17 daily average: 1577
  • Apr 18-24 daily average: 1210
  • Apr 25-May 1 daily average: 1013
  • May 2-8 daily average: 731
Deaths per day look like we are below 10 per day, which we now know would be the first time since March 2020 given that the one week we thought had been below 10 per day before May 2-8 now is known to have 10.3 deaths per day.  With May 2-8 having only 8.3 daily deaths, it seems reasonable to believe that the below 10 per day may actually remain true as we learn more.  
  • Apr 4-10 daily average: 12.3
  • Apr 11-17 daily average: 10.3 (less than a week ago we thought this was 9.7)
  • Apr 18-24 daily average: 10.4
  • Apr 25-May 1 daily average: 11.3 (less than a week ago we thought this was 10.9)
  • May 2-8 daily average: 8.3
Based on the information we have so far for the week of May 9-15, I expect that cases will fall for the 6th straight week and deaths will remain below 10 per day.  My question is, given the push to return to normal and the lack of respect we're giving COVID-19 right now, how long will the cases continue to fall.  We slowed our progress on cases in late May last year and then stopped entirely just over a month later at the end of June.  Will we be able to make it that far into the year in 2021?

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

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