Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 24-May-2021 Edition

Last year, we decreased 1-week average cases per day from 2176 to 498 in 6 weeks but then slowed that decrease and saw 348 the next week and reached the lowest spread 4 weeks thereafter at 156.

For comparison, we have recently decreased from 1964 to 491 in 6 week and are already seeing the slow down with last week already being higher than 333 and still having a few days before that number settles.

Last year, the reason for the slow down in spread had to do with re-opening quickly (new experiments of what we can have open starting before the previous 2 experiments could have the data come in) and not looking back (we didn't call for people to start being cautious again even as our cases rose steadily throughout July through November).

This year, we have determined that we no longer need to have any precautions and many are taking the guidance from the CDC as a sign they can return to all pre-pandemic practices.  We currently have about 50.3% of the population fully vaccinated and in a month we'll hopefully have 64.6% fully vaccinated.  That marks a slight slowdown in vaccinations but not yet worrying.  Unfortunately, that also means we won't be at the lowest estimate for the vaccinations needed to reach herd immunity until at least the start of July (hm, I wonder what spreading event could happen at the start of July... never mind the one coming up next week).  The question remains, though, with the slow down in reduction in cases, what does this transition to being fully-reopen mean for the summer? There will be those of us still living cautiously and not visiting with friends and family but I suspect the vast majority will go back to those casual visits.

But it's not all about cases.  The good news is that hospitalizations continue to decrease significantly.  The bad news is that deaths seem to be sticking to the high-single digits (though we do appear to have finally made it to single-digits after more than a year of not seeing a single week with an average below 10/day... with that said, it took us a couple weeks to know that the week of Apr 11 had an average of 10/day and right now, the week of May 9 has an average of 9.7/day).  

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

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