I Want to Predict.... but I can't.
I want to predict that this summer will see daily case counts averaging lower than last summer. That we'll continue to see the current trend downward continue through June like we did last year and potentially only slowly increase again in July and August.
I would not be completely unreasonable for predicting this either, for a variety of reasons.
I want to predict this but it is just so far from a foregone conclusion.
A year ago, we were still (for the most part) actively trying to do less risky activity. We still had some businesses closed. We had many restrictions on those businesses that were open.
There was a sense that we were improving, and many in late May/June started to say that things were indeed better and gleefully announcing the top-page reporting numbers since they were suggesting the situation was much better than if you took more than a minute to look at it. But this sense was tampered among many and the restrictions caused many to not return to normal activities.
We are now returning to normal more and more. Many states removing all restrictions in May through July. Many people are equating "vaccinated" with "free of COVID-19 risks." There are reporters telling us that they're excited to be returning to normal and that the less than 10 percent of transmission of COVID-19 that the CDC says happens is far less than that bar because it includes activities other than people walking by each other as they travel to places.
As we saw last fall, the only thing that causes us to take a step back is a huge wave rather than long-running sustained increasing of cases, so even if cases start to rise again, we likely won't do anything to counter it until we see cases rise to levels we saw over the winter or higher. And we also will likely see fewer and fewer getting tested to see if those symptoms are from COVID-19 if they aren't severe enough to get hospitalized so asymptomatic cases and low-symptomatic cases will likely grow in count without our being aware.
And then there's the CDC guidance released yesterday that vaccinated people can stop wearing masks in various scenarios. The guidance has, predictably been simplified greatly by everyone into "vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks" when the CDC is still suggesting people wear masks in some places. The guidance is likely being given in an effort to further push people to get vaccinated. And I get that. I get that it's super important to get more people vaccinated and we're basically doing everything we can think of to provide incentives. Here's the problem though: we know the COVID-19 spread is still happening and that the more we say things are fine, the more risky behaviors more people will engage in.
And as we return to normal, that includes all the networks we open up in the summer with kids going to camps and activities everywhere, including sleep away camps and indoor activities that happen for a week and then engaging in a whole new network the next week.... or daily cross-networking.
So, I wish I could say that I'm confident that we will continue to see cases fall through July and that cases would stay low till the fall like they did last year or that with the vaccinations being rolled out to more and more that we may not even see cases skyrocket in the fall. I wish I could say that I had that faith. But I just don't know that I believe that. I'm somewhat confident that cases will continue to fall in the short run but the further out we go, the less confident I am that I have a clue what to expect.
Here's hoping things continue to get better.
Please consider doing what you can to restrict the chance of your spreading COVID-19 even if you're vaccinated.
- Keep social distancing, especially when indoors.
- Keep wearing masks
- Stay away from indoor locations when possible.
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