Outside MA: New England - Pre-Memorial Day Weekend 2021

Periodically, I look at states and countries where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid.

It's been a few months now but I'm going to go through all the US states I've been looking at in the next couple days for a pre-Memorial Day weekend update.

The good news is that all the states are doing much better than they were in November-January.  In fact, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut are all below 10 cases per 100,000 per day.  

  • Connecticut
    • Let's start by pointing out that at the start of July, Connecticut found itself with only 1.7 cases per day per 100,000 people... that's important because it tells us what they can get the numbers down to when they try.
    • The "Fall" wave peaked around 8-Dec-2020 with the preceding 7 days having an average of 78 cases per day per 100,000 people
    • Connecticut then saw a slight decline to an average of 40 cases per day per 100,000 people the 7 days ending on 25-Dec-2020.  
    • This decline was short lived and they shot back up for 3 weeks to an average of 84 cases per day per 100,000 the 7 days ending on 13-Jan-2021.  
    • They decreased their cases rapidly for a bit and then stalled out, finding a trough bottom of 20 cases per 100,000 the 7-days ending 9-Mar-2021, then slowly ramping back up to 38 by 30-Mar-2021.  
    • Ever since they've been slowly decreasing and recent numbers put them around 4.1 cases per day per 100,000.  Still above where they were in July 2020 but that was also the middle of summer.  
    • Summary: 1.7 -> 78 -> 40 -> 84 -> 20 -> 38 -> 4.1
    • Current Vaccination Rate: 52.4%
  • Maine
    • Let's start by pointing out that Maine never really had a spring wave.  They spent all spring, summer, and most of the fall below 4 cases per day per 100,000 people.  It wasn't until the very very end of October that they started to see more cases.
    • The "Fall" wave peaked around 15-Jan-2021 with the preceding 7 days having an average of 46.5 cases per day per 100,000 people.  ONLY 46.5... that's ridiculously low but it also took them much longer to realize they needed to do something... though that might have been due to only seeing significant cases (more than 8 per day per 100,000) start much later than most (start of November).  
    • They had a steep decline throughout January and early February.  Reaching only 10.3 cases day per 100,000 people!  This is the lowest valley between waves you're going to find of any state that I review in the US (including the ones outside New England and right around half that of the lowest of Massachusett's troughs)
    • They then slowly ticked up until 28-Mar-2021 when they started a steep climb back to a whopping 35 cases per day per 100,000 the 7 days ending on 18-Apr-2021
    • Just as quickly as they increased, they the tore down their cases and are now sitting at about 10.4 cases per day per 100,000... which is not what they were last year at all, but they show no sign of slowing their decline either.
    •  Summary: less than 4 until end of Oct  -> 46.5 -> 10.3 -> 35 -> 10.4
    • Current Vaccination Rate: 53.6%
  • Massachusetts (just a quick note, I usually use test date but I'm going off reported date to keep things being apples to apples)
    • At our highest in the spring 2020 wave, we reached 35.8 cases per day per 100,000.
    • In the summer, we got as low as 2.7 cases per day per 100,000 the 7 days leading up to 5-July-2020.
    • We then slowly and steadily increased to the "fall" peak of 73 cases per 100,000 the 7 days leading up to 9-Dec-2020.
    • We took things almost seriously for a couple weeks because Christmas was right around the corner and got down to only 56 cases per day per 100,000 (yep, our efforts were a joke) in the 7 days leading up to that Holiday.
    • We threw caution to the wind with Christmas and New Years, reaching 94 cases per day per 100,000 with our "winter" wave that crested the 7 days ending 12-Jan-2021.
    • We then worked our numbers down to 20.3 cases per day per 100,000 for early March but congratulated ourselves a bit much and came back up to 34 by 11-April.
    • After 11-April, however, we've been trending downward as we enter our Summer slow-down and are currently sitting at 13.5 cases per day per 100,000.... which is higher than any other New England state... so now seems like the perfect time to say "we're done" right?
    • Summary: 35.8 -> 2.7 -> 73 -> 56 -> 94 -> 20.3 -> 34 -> 13.5
    • Current Vaccination Rate: 51.7%
  • New Hampshire
    • New Hampshire peaked in the spring with 7.4 cases per day per 100,000 on 7-May... SO LOW!  They then spent all of 14-Jun-2020 through 1-Oct-2020 below 3 cases per day per 100,000, a couple times getting down below 1.5 cases per day per 100,000.
    • Their "fall" wave crested on 13-Dec-2020 with 65 cases per day per 100,000 
    • They drove cases down for a couple weeks reaching 41.4 on 25-Dec-2020 but then rebounded just as fast to 64.3 by 8-Jan-2021.
    • The muddled about for a bit at around that level until 24-Jan-2021 and then pushed themselves off a cliff and drove the numbers down to 15.1 for 7-Mar-2021.
    • They then had a slower climb to 32 for 14-Apr-2021 and have since been on a steady decline to the current 5.1.  
    • Summary: 7.4 -> 1.5 -> (within 1 month: 66.5 -> 41.4 -> 64.3) -> 15.1 -> 32 -> 5.1
    • Current Vaccination Rate: 48%
  • Rhode Island
    • Rhode Island's first wave back in Mar/Apr 2020 reached 37 cases per day per 100,000 the 7 days leading up to 26-Apr-2020.
    • They were able to dip all the way down to 3.3 in the days leading up to 01-Jul-2020 but then spent all of July and August bouncing between 5.6 and 10.9.
    • Then came the slow and steady increase to the 125 cases per day per 100,000 that the 7 days leading to 09-Dec-2020 would see.
    • They were able to dip down to a low of 57 for 25-Dec-2020 but just 3 weeks later reached 130 (I can't imagine what could have spurred this climb)
    • After their early January spike, they managed to reduce down to 33 but then plateued for a while, fluctuating between 30 and 43.
    • They started a decent trend toward reduced cases near the end of April, driving from the 7-day average for 19-Apr average of 30.8 down to the 7-day average average for 19-May of just 6.8... but that they appear to have rebounded in the week since then and are now at 11.3
    • Summary 37 -> 3.3 -> 5.6-10.9 for 2 months -> (within 1 month of eachother: 125 -> 57 -> 130) -> 33 -> 30-43 for a couple months -> 30.8 -> 6.8 -> 11.3
    • Current Vaccination Rate: 50.6%
  • Vermont
    • Vermont "peaked" at 6.6 on 08-Apr-2020 for their spring wave... can you call that a peak?  I guess so given that Vermont then kept their average below 2 for most of the time from 19-Apr-2020 through 22-Oct-2020!  They reached 2.4 for all of 7 days during that time... so... you know... they did pretty well at the start.  But that's where it all got rocky for them.
    • The 7 days leading up to 22-Nov-2020 saw them reach 17 cases per day per 100,000 people.  They the dipped down to 10.4 by 30-Nov-2020 before spiking again to 21.4.
    • They would decrease slowly to 12.3 for the now all too familiar dip at 25-Dec-2020... and you know what happened next: a sharp climb to a whopping 27.6 cases per day per 100,000 for 8-Jan-2021.
    • Through January and into February they had a jumbled decline in cases, reaching 15.5 for 1-Mar-2021 before climbing again to 30.4  for 4-Apr-2021.
    • Ever since 4-Apr-2021, though, they've been working hard to get back down and now sit at just 4 cases per day per 100,000.
    • Summary: 6.6 -> under 2.5 for all of May through Sep  -> 17 -> 21.4 -> 12.3 -> 27.6 -> 15.5 -> 30.4 -> 4
    • Current Vaccination Rate: 53.6%
Overall Summary: For the most part, the New England states have had a peak in late 2020, then a brief shallow dip followed by a new peak for the start of January 2021.  For the most part, we are all working our way toward the numbers we saw last summer, some better than others.  Maine and Vermont stand out as having faired the best, but that's not too surprising given that the more dense the locale, the harder it will likely be hit.  With that said, Rhode Island does seem to suggest that we still need to be working at reducing the spread rather than just saying that we're done with the battle now that we've reached 50% vaccinated.

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. 

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