Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 04-May-2021 Edition

Good news on the cases per day and deaths per day fronts... bad news on the hospitalizations and vaccinations front...

Though we certainly have slowed our decrease in cases from what we saw a few weeks ago, they aren't slowing quite as quickly as I had been expecting at the start of the week.  I had expecting the week of 23-Jun-2021 to reach an average of 220 cases per day.  It now appears we won't reach that and may actually stay below 200, though just barely.

Average new cases per day by week, then and now (and with per 100,000 people in parenthesis to bring in line with the outside MA and the more local reviews I've been doing):

Week of 19-Apr-2020:  2118.4 (30.7)
Week of 25-Apr-2020:  1773.0 (25.7)
Week of 3-May-2020:   1405.9 (20.4)
Week of 10-May-2020: 1073.4 (15.6)
Week of 17-May-2020:   852.0 (12.4)
Week of 24-May-2020:   498.3   (7.2)
Week of 31-May-2020:   348.0   (5.0)
Week of 07-Jun-2020:     239.6   (3.5)

Week of 4-Apr-2021:    1866.0 (27.1)
Week of 11-Apr-2021:  1578.4 (22.9)
Week of 18-Apr-2021:  1211.7 (17.6)
Week of 25-Apr-2021:  1015.4 (14.7)
Week of 2-May-2021:     734.4 (10.7)
Week of 09-May-2021:   501.7   (7.3)
Week of 16-May-2021:   358.6   (5.2)
Week of 23-Jun-2021:     196.9   (2.9) 

Average deaths per day had seemed to be a little more stubborn, sticking to the 9's the first couple weeks of May and only decreasing to 8.3 per day for the third week.  The fourth week, however, currently appears to have only had 5.1 deaths per day, which is good progress.  This past week appears to have even seen a single day with 0 deaths.... though that may be a bit premature as we still find deaths weeks later... still, middle-single digits from what we know so far for this week, which is better than being stuck at high single digits.... wouldn't it be nice to have under 1 death per day though, given that we've decided we're done worrying about precautions against the spread?

Well, that was all great, wasn't it?  Oh, you're wondering about the bad news I mentioned?

Hospital use, even with the decreased cases, for the week of May 23 only decreased by 3 people per day and so far this past week only decreased by an average of 8 people per day... where we had been seeing double digit decreases earlier in May.  Furthermore, intubated and ICU counts have barely decreased at all in the last 2 weeks, with more people still dying on average than these decreasing headcounts.  The good news is that this past week had more people leaving the hospitals overall than deaths, though just barely (ie, just 4 more people leaving the hospital than dying, on average).

Vaccination rates in MA have dropped significantly.  It used to be that we saw 0.5% increases per day.  Over the last 10 days, however, we've only seen an increase to the At Least 1 Dose percentage of just 1.9%, that's 0.19% per day.... and with sitting at 66.8%, you might be asking yourself if we'll reach herd immunity before school starts up again later this year... and, yep, that's a really good question.

Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

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