Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 26-Jul-2021 Edition

I could go on a tear of expletives but instead let's just get right down to it.

Last week, all of a day old and therefore going to increase further, already has an average of 409.1 cases per day... that's more than 3 times the rate from the week of July 4th.  To give a clear picture of how things have progressed:
  • June 13-19 2021 - 71.9 cases per day (1.04 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • June 20-26 2021 - 65.9 cases per day (0.96 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • Jun 27-Jul 3 2021-78.7 cases per day (1.14 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 4-10 2021  - 115.7 cases per day (1.68 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 11-17 2021- 258.9 cases per day (3.76 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 18-24 2021- 409.1 cases per day (5.94 cases per 100,000 people per day)
And keep in mind that July 18-24 numbers are still coming in.

But let's take a look back at the same period last year to compare because surely we saw the same thing, right?  I mean, we've got relatively high vaccination rates so surely if anything it would be a slower... 
  • June 21-27 2020 - 176.9 cases per day (2.57 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • Jun 28-Jul 4 2020-156.6 cases per day (2.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 5-11 2020   -  199.1 cases per day (2.89 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 12-18 2020 -  211.9 cases per day (3.07 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 19-25 2020 -  220.0 cases per day (3.19 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • Jul 26-Aug 1 2020-271.7 cases per day (3.94 cases per 100,000 people per day)
That's right.  Despite having gotten down to nearly 1/2 the cases the week of Jun 20 2021 when compared to a week later last year, we have rebounded quit a bit faster and are roughly 4/3 the cases for the similar time point from last year (4 weeks after the low point).

Oh, and for a taste of what last week's numbers may climb to by the end of this week, Monday through Thursday has no day below 500.  From May 21 through the preceding week, we never once got past 316 cases in a single day... but last week will likely have no single weekday below 500... and Wednesday is currently sitting at 575.  To reach 575 in a single day you have to go back to May 12.  I doubt we'll end up reaching the 497 average cases per day that we saw the week of May 9, but we've already far surpassed the 357 from the week of May 16.  I expect that by week's end we'll see last week had 450 cases per day.

And one more comparison to last year: we spent all of July through the end of November increasing cases... in terms of comparing weekly totals, we're already to where we were in mid-September 2020.  That's 2.5 months' increases in 1 month and still within the summer period when COVID-19 is easier to manage.

Please, if you haven't already, start going back to precautions you started going back to in the fall of 2020, or better yet, the winter of 2020.

Stay safe. Stay informed. 

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