Outside MA: Brazil, India, Japan, and UK (July 2021 update)

Periodically, I look at states and countries where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid.

Today, I'm reviewing some countries I last reviewed at the end of Nov: Brazil, India, Japan, and UK.

Numbers for comparison - MA

• We had an initial wave that reached 35.8 cases per 100,000 per day
• We got our cases down to 2.7 cases per 100,000 per day at the start of the summer of 2020.
• We then steadily increased and reached (with a brief decline in late December but the increase resuming at Christmas) 94 cases per 100,000 per day in mid-January 2021.
• We then decreased cases again and, with a slight bump in April, managed to get our cases down to 0.9 cases per 100,000 per day.
• Latest: 
• Cases: we're now seeing cases increase again with more cases last week than either of the preceding two weeks... we are now at 1.1 cases per 100,000 per day
• Current Vaccination Rate: 62.2% (now seeing less than a 0.1% in new vaccinations per day)

Brazil

Brazil has fluctuated but not nearly as much as other places I've seen.  Their cases also haven't risen to the spread seen in the US and Europe.  They clearly haven't done a great job but they haven't done as poor a job as many places I've been looking at.  

• First wave reached 22 cases per 100,000 per day in late July 2020.
• They then steadied out and then slowly decreased over the course of August through October, reaching 6.5 cases per 100,000 per day in early November 2020.
• Following what is a near universal trend to increase cases in December in the countries I look at, they reached 23.6 cases per 100,000 per day before the end of December.
• They reduced for a couple weeks but, just slightly to 16.6 cases per 100,000 per day the last week of December and first third of January but then suddenly jumped back up to 26.1 cases per 100,000 per day for the start of the second third of January.
• Slow, nearly plateaued reduction in cases occurred through the end of January, getting down to 21.5 cases per 100,000 per day in mid-February.
• They then increased to 36.5 cases per 100,000 per day for late March.
• Reducing back down to 26.9 cases per 100,000 per day for late April, they then very slightly increased through the end of June, capping at 36.6 cases per 100,000 per day.
• They have since dropped significantly through today.
• Latest: 
• Cases: They're now at 23.1 cases per 100,000 per day (Increasing to 235% the cases they were seeing 2 weeks ago)
• Vaccination Rate: 13.3% (and seeing roughly 0.4% per day for new vaccinations)

India
India is a story of how you can control the spread for a long time and then, due to relaxing and having large gatherings, have a massive increase... and then, with super-strict restrictions, can successfully reverse that increase.

• Their first wave was super-gradual and reached just 6.8 cases per 100,000 per day all the way in September 2020.
• They then had an equally gradual decline, reaching 0.8 cases per 100,000 per day in early February 2021.
• They had a very slow increase in cases through mid-March when they reached just 1.6 cases per 100,000 per day but then saw a massive increase in April to reach 28.6 cases per 100,000 per day in the start of May
• This number doesn't really show the devastating number of people in some regions of India getting COVID-19 though because of the great diversity of the country in its regions and the vast space and sheer volume of people we're talking about.  Delhi, for instance, reached 133 cases per 100,000 per day.
• The second half of May and all of June saw a rapid decline in cases, just as quick as the increase they saw in April and the start of May, though the decline does appear to be leveling out now.
• Latest: 
• Cases: They're now seeing cases increase again and are at 3.1 cases per 100,000 per day 
• Vaccination Rate: 4.8% (and seeing roughly 0.21% per day for new vaccinations)

Japan
If you were just looking at Japan's waves in terms of the curve, it seems bad.  They're now seeing their third wave and each has had a higher peak than the prior.  But that's super deceiving given that their latest peak, which was substantially higher than their first, was a whopping 5.1 cases per 100,000 people per day.  Seriously, think about that for a moment.  Their PEAK is around the same as mostof the locations I'm looking at had at the bottom in between waves!  There is an array of reasons for this, not the least of which would be a cultural norm of wearing masks when one is sick rather than just taking meds that partially mask your illness.

• Their first "wave" reached just 0.4 cases per 100,000 per day in April 2020.
• They then went most of May and all of June with fewer than 0.1 cases per 100,000 per day.
• July and early August saw a second "wave" which topped out at 1.1 cases per 100,000 per day.
• In between the second and third waves, they plateaued at about 0.4 cases per 100,000 per day from September through mid-October.
• In November their cases started increasing again and peaked at... wait for it... 5.1 cases per 100,000 per day.  I can't stress enough how low their peaks have been.
• They had a steep drop off in spread in late January through mid February 2021.  They bottomed out at 0.8 cases per day 100,000 per day in March.
• They then increased quickly to their fourth wave's peak in mid-May where they reached again that whopping 5.1 cases per 100,000 per day. 
• Mid-May through Mid-June saw another steep decline in spread, bringing them to just 1.1 cases per 100,000 per day. 
• Latest: 
• Cases: They've been seeing some small increases and are now seeing 1.3 cases per 100,000 per day.
• Vaccination Rate: 15.2% (and seeing roughly 0.35% per day for new vaccinations)

United Kingdom
The UK had one really bad wave that rivaled the US waves but the rest have been somewhat less and they've tended to get lower than we have, with the notable exception of recent months, at least in terms of the comparison to MA.

• First "wave" reached 7.3 cases per 100,000 per day in April 2020.
• The low between their spring and fall 2020 got down to 0.6 cases per 100,000 per day in early July.
• They saw a slow increase through the rest of the summer and then a dramatic increase in September through October... "dramatic" being relative of course.  They reached 38 cases per 100,000 per day in mid-November, had a brief decrease in cases only to "skyrocket" throughout December to reach 90 cases per 100,000 per day in mid-January 2021.
• As quickly as they climbed, they then dropped for the remainder of January and through February, getting down to 8.8 cases per 100,000 per day in March before their decline slowed significantly.  
• The reached the bottom again at 2.8 cases per 100,000 per day in late May and then started increasing again and have seen a steep climb since Jun 21st.
• Latest: 
• Cases: They're now seeing cases increase again and are at 39.3 cases per 100,000 per day (Increasing to 235% the cases they were seeing 2 weeks ago)
• Vaccination Rate: 50.8% (and seeing roughly 0.15% per day for new vaccinations)

Stay safe. Stay informed.