Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 02-Aug-2021 Edition

Based on last Friday's data, I predicted over the weekend that by today we'd see that last Wednesday's case count would be at least 700 and that by 2 days from now we'd see Thursday and Friday of last week join in on that level.

Let's check in on the first part of that prediction now: Wednesday of last week has not only reached 700 but has gone far past with 793 cases.  Not to be outdone, Thursday has already reached 839.  Last week already has an average of 623.7 cases per day or 9 cases per 100,000 people per day... this is yet another huge increase with days to go before we see the numbers stop increasing regularly.  By the way, even the previous 3 weeks saw some increases... July 4-10 increased by about 2 cases per day and July 11-17 increased by about 4 cases per day, and July 18-24 increased by 18 cases per day.
  • June 13-19 2021 - 71.9 cases per day (1.04 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • June 20-26 2021 - 66.0 cases per day (0.96 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • Jun 27-Jul 3 2021-78.7 cases per day (1.14 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 4-10 2021  - 117.6 cases per day (1.71 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • July 11-17 2021- 263.1 cases per day (3.81 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • July 18-24 2021- 476.9 cases per day (6.92 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • July 25-31 2021- 623.7 cases per day (9.05 cases per 100,000 people per day)
623.7 cases per day brings us into very early October 2020 range where the week of October 4-10 2020 saw an average of 633.1 cases per day and also happened to have 1 day with greater than 800 cases in a single day.  I expect last week will surpass that in tomorrow's report.  

We've also seen a daily increase of hospitalization of increasing bed usage by 11.7 per day.... we had seen low single digits for the previous 3 weeks and hadn't seen double-digit increases since March.  Comparing things to last year, we didn't return to double-digit daily increases at hospitals until the week of October 25-31 2020.  

Stay safe. Stay informed.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

MA Wastewater Tracking (23-Jan-2024 data)

Image
See that little uptick at the end of each graph? This didn't happen in 2022 but did in 2023. We understood the goal in 2022 (to some degree) but since ... is there some portion of the population who says "covid spread must be down so let's go nuts"? I suspect this is partially colleges reconvening their students on campuses where in 2022 they were still trying to get their students to maintain some precautions and they haven't been since... but I also don't think this is just college campuses.
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 13-Oct-2020 edition

Last week's case count is already higher than any other week going back until May 17... which was the case last week but now we're able to report that again because, even though cases will keep increasing for last week for a couple more days, we're over the total from the previous week by 189, or an average of 27/day. Also... we've now seen 2 straight weeks with every single weekday having more new cases than any single day from May 29 through Sept 23 (and that run of large-case-count weekdays starts on Sep 28... so...) Last week also saw 4 straight days with only 1 day of higher case count going back through May 27... including the immediately preceding week. Testing, with 1 exception, has been above 3.0% for individuals for the last 20 days. For comparison, the same rate was below 2.5%, with the exception of 1 day, from July 5 through September 2.... oh, and 13 of the last 20 days that percentage was 3.5% or higher and 4 of the last 15 were 4.0% or higher.... 2 of the...
Read more

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 27-Oct-2020 edition

Well, yesterday we had 2 weekdays under 1000 cases last week, today we have no weekdays under 1050, which means that there is NO day between May 19 and the start of last week that reaches the count of ANY weekday last week. This far exceeds my prediction that the average for the weekdays last week would have had 900+ cases by the close of this week... the average weekday cases was 1,111.6. Thursday of last week now has reached 1343 cases, which brings us back to May 12 looking for a day as bad. The week saw an average of 923 cases per day (Sunday has 327 and Saturday, which is still increasing, saw 581) which means we are no longer looking at the week of May 17 for a week that exceeded and now have to look at May 10. Oh, also, the comparison of the average from last week to the one before? Yeah, we increased by 30 percent! Month over month? We DOUBLED! Hospital usage, ICU usage, and intubation counts are all up too, so no bright spot there. The 3-day average hospital usage from exactly...
Read more