Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 01-Sep-2021 Edition

It's Wednesday, which means we have an update on the new hospitalizations we've seen in the last week.  The increase in new hospitalizations has slowed, which is a positive sign, but we haven't seen an actual reduction in new hospitalizations yet, and the start of this week doesn't appear to indicate much a hope of this with an average of 74.7 over the first 3 days.  

June 13-19 2021 -  13.4
June 20-26 2021 -  12.7
Jun 27-Jul 3 2021- 11.4
July 4-10 2021    -  14.3
July 11-17 2021  -  14.3
July 18-24 2021  -  17.9
July 25-31 2021  -  34.0
Aug 01-07 2021  -  42.7
Aug 08-14 2021  -  54.7
Aug 15-21 2021  -  69.0
Aug 22-28 2021  -  72.0

Sticking with hospitals for a moment, last week saw did see a decline in the daily increase of hospital use, though it remained in the double digits at 11.1 additional beds being used per day.  ICU bed usage increase rate also fell compared to the prior week but it was still higher than any other week going back to the first week of January (aside from the prior week, of course).  Intubations, on the other hand, increased more quickly than the prior week and brings us all the way back to the second week of December for another week of the same amount of increase.... and surprisingly (and this should scare you) that one week in December is the only one after our initial wave last year that exceeds last week's intubation increase rate.  Also, today, we have 104 people intubated.... last year we didn't see a triple digit intubation count in the fall wave until November 24.

Quick review of cases shows that even if we didn't see new cases come into the tally for last week in the coming days, last week would still be a sizable increase above the prior week... but yeah, we'll see more cases come in so, you know, there's that.  We're now at the point where there were only 4 weeks in our first wave with higher case counts (I think it's reasonable to expect we won't reach the 1735 cases per day of April 5-11 2020)  We're also unlikely to reach the 1773 cases per day from the first week of November with last week's count... but I do suspect we'll get there by mid-September.  

  • June 13-19 2021 -  73.3 cases per day (1.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • June 20-26 2021 -  66.0 cases per day (0.96 cases per 100,000 people per day)
  • Jun 27-Jul 3 2021- 79.9 cases per day (1.16 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • July 4-10 2021  -  118.0 cases per day (1.71 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • July 11-17 2021-  264.3 cases per day (3.83 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • July 18-24 2021-  478.1 cases per day (6.94 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • July 25-31 2021-  720.7 cases per day (10.46 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • Aug 01-07 2021-  998.6 cases per day (14.49 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • Aug 08-14 2021-1155.3 cases per day (16.76 cases per 100,000 people per day) 
  • Aug 15-21 2021-1312.7 cases per day (19.04 cases per 100,000 people per day)*
  • Aug 22-28 2021-1408.6 cases per day (20.4 cases per 100,000 people per day)
*We now know that Aug 15-21 2021 had roughly 35 more cases per day from the knowledge of that week as of Wednesday of last week.  I think we can easily expect the same shift for last week's case count to occur in the next 7 days.

Let's also review the continuing increase of the death rate.  We went from weekly average daily deaths of 1.5-2 in late June and early July and then bounced around a little in July in the low single digits... and then in the second and third week of August we were in the 5's (5.7 and 5.6 respectively).  Last week saw a jump up to 7.4 deaths per day.  

And checking in with waste water tracking, last week it appeared to show that we had peaked and were declining in spread, but that decline was short lived and we're heading back up again according to the latest reporting... ahead of the gatherings this past weekend in Boston and the upcoming holiday weekend and return of in-school networks.  We're not back up to the highest we've seen in the last couple months but still, heading up is never a good thing.

Stay safe. Stay informed.

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