Outside MA: Each US State (and some Territories) 28-Day Comparison (24-Sep-2021 data)

It's been a couple weeks so let's take another comparison of how states are doing.

One quick note, when doing my outside MA reporting, I always use the "report date" instead of the more accurate "test date" data that I use for the MA reporting ("report date" data are just easier to locate).

Color coding for cases/100k per day
  • Blue - Less than 1.5 cases per 100,000 people per day (this is approximately the "Low transmission" from the CDC)
  • Green - Greater than or equal to 1.5 and less than 4 cases per 100,000 people per day (included in "Moderate transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Yellow - Greater than or equal to 4 and less than 8 cases per 100,000 people per day (included in "Moderate transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Orange - Greater than or equal to 8 and less than 16 cases per 100,000 people per day (this is approximately the "Substantial transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Red - Greater than or equal to 16 and less than 24 cases per 100,000 people per day (this and above is approximately the "High transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Maroon- Greater than or equal to 24 and less than 40 cases per 100,000 people per day
  • Purple- Greater than or equal to 40 and less than 64 cases per 100,000 people per day
  • Black - Greater than or equal to 64 cases per 100,000 people per day
Color coding for comparator between period increases
  • Green - Moving in the right direction
  • Yellow - Moving in the wrong direction
Explanation of Data Points:
  • The first number is the current spread in average cases per 100,000 people per day over the last 7 days (as of yesterday's figures).
  • The second number is the percentage increase from the 7 days leading up to 12-Aug-2021 was vs the 7 days leading up to 26-Aug-2021.
  • The third number is the percentage increase from the 7 days leading up to 12-Aug-2021 was vs the 7 days leading up to 26-Aug-2021.
  • The fourth number is the current fully-vaccinated rate.
  • The fifth number is the at-least-one-dose rate, which gives us a good idea of what the backlog looks like (ie how the fully-vaccinated rate may increase to in the next month)
  • The sixth number is the percent per day they are increasing their at-least-one-dose (ie, how quickly they're getting new vaccinations)

State:                  Cases/100k  Increase-> Increase         Fully      Partial   New Vaccinations
                              per Day    late Aug         Sep       Vaccinated    Vacc.       per day
Alabama:   58.4;    84.2% -> -25.9%; 41.7% 52.1% 0.13%
Alaska: 125.1; 130.7% ->   81.9%;        49.7% 56.8% 0.11%
Arizona:          33.6; 105.6% -> -21.2%; 50.7% 58.9% 0.10%
Arkansas:   42.2;    18.1% -> -38.3%; 45.1% 55.4% 0.10%
California:   21.0;    84.9% -> -44.3%; 58.5% 71.3% 0.11%
Colorado:   28.8; 110.7% ->     2.3%;        59.0% 65.2% 0.08%
Connecticut:   17.9; 122.9% ->   -0.6%;        68.3% 75.7% 0.10%
Delaware:   48.0; 325.3% ->   39.0%;        57.3% 65.9% 0.08%
Florida:               38.3;    58.7% -> -63.5%; 56.6% 66.5% 0.13%
Georgia:          44.7; 201.2% -> -44.6%; 44.9% 54.5% 0.14%
Guam: 113.0; 2275.0% ->  98.9%; 66.5% 75.4% 0.25%
Hawaii:   30.6; 268.6% -> -38.4%; 57.4% 76.4% 0.10%
Idaho:   68.3; 143.3% ->   81.2%;        41.2% 46.6% 0.10%
Illinois:          25.1; 133.9% -> -12.5%; 53.1% 68.0% 0.09%
Indiana:          47.5; 317.8% -> -13.3%; 48.1% 51.9% 0.08%
Iowa:   54.8; 224.6% ->  70.2%;         53.6% 57.8% 0.07%
Kansas:   40.1;    72.0% -> -12.2%; 50.6% 59.4% 0.10%
Kentucky:   84.4; 262.2% ->   -4.5%;        51.6% 60.1% 0.14%
Louisiana:   30.9;    21.5% -> -68.9%; 44.9% 51.4% 0.09%
Maine:   34.7; 195.7% -> 128.4%; 68.0% 73.7% 0.10%
Maryland:   20.1; 214.6% ->   12.9%;        63.7% 70.2% 0.09%
Massachusetts:   25.1; 131.6% ->   22.0%;        67.6% 77.0% 0.07%
Michigan:   32.3; 275.4% ->   57.9%;        52.0% 56.7% 0.06%
Minnesota:   38.9; 249.8% ->   47.1%;        57.8% 63.2% 0.06%
Mississippi:   49.5; 124.1% ->  -54.0%; 42.9% 49.8% 0.14%
Missouri:          31.9;     -2.7% ->  -19.2%; 47.4% 54.4% 0.08%
Montana:          87.1; 203.5% -> 114.5%; 48.1% 54.4% 0.09%
Nebraska:   35.9; 201.9% ->     8.9%;        54.3% 59.1% 0.09%
Nevada:   31.0;    10.3% ->  -14.0%; 50.3% 60.3% 0.10%
New Hamp.:   29.5; 332.8% ->   44.8%;        61.3% 69.0% 0.08%
New Jersey:   24.6; 148.8% ->     7.7%;        63.9% 72.0% 0.10%
New Mexico:   28.0; 205.7% ->  -26.9%; 62.6% 72.1% 0.11%
New York:   26.2; 135.4% ->   14.8%;        63.1% 70.6% 0.14%
North Carolina:   57.1; 189.4% ->    -3.5%;        49.2% 58.8% 0.14%
North Dakota:   61.7; 415.7% ->   78.7%;        43.7% 50.6% 0.10%
N. Mariana Islands:    1.7;   -50.0% -> -50.0%; 59.3% 62.3% 0.06%
Ohio:   55.8; 304.6% ->   73.5%;        49.9% 53.9% 0.06%
Oklahoma:   47.7;    97.7% ->  -24.7%; 47.0% 56.1% 0.13%
Oregon:   37.7; 225.0% ->  -22.5%; 60.3% 66.2% 0.10%
Pennsylvania:   36.5; 283.6% ->   68.0%;        57.4% 71.8% 0.11%
Puerto Rico:     7.9; 176.9% ->  -75.4%; 69.6% 78.8% 0.21%
Rhode Island:   31.3; 143.9% ->   19.1%;        67.7% 74.7% 0.14%
South Carolina:   66.1; 232.5% ->  -23.1%; 46.5% 54.7% 0.14%
South Dakota:   47.1; 781.6% ->   24.5%;        51.2% 58.6% 0.10%
Tennessee:   66.0; 266.0% ->  -26.0%; 44.8% 52.3% 0.13%
Texas:   42.1; 113.5% ->  -26.5%; 50.8% 59.5% 0.11%
US Virg. Isl.:   24.4;    28.6% ->  -27.8%; 43.2% 50.0% 0.10%
Utah:   43.6;    66.4% ->   21.7%;        50.2% 58.6% 0.09%
Vermont:            33.2; 361.5% ->   72.5%;        69.2% 77.4% 0.04%
Virginia:                40.2; 250.9% ->   20.9%;        60.0% 67.9% 0.11%
Washington:   37.9; 210.2% ->    -9.4%;        62.7% 70.7% 0.13%
Wash D.C.:   28.3; 201.8% ->   14.0%;        60.7% 71.4% 0.11%
West Virginia:   94.6; 450.9% ->   75.9%;        40.3% 48.0% 0.04%
Wisconsin:   54.6; 168.7% ->   86.0%;        56.0% 60.6% 0.09%
Wyoming:   91.6; 250.0% ->   30.5%;     41.0% 48.0% 0.12%



Summary:
  • 9 of 55 states/territories are still seeing spread higher than 64 cases per 100,000 people per day (the CDC's highest delimiter is roughly 14.25 cases per 100,000 people per day so this level of spread is pretty damn high).  Guam and Alaska now lead the pack with higher than 100 cases per 100,000 people per day!
  • All states/territories appear to be moving in the right direction (either slowing their increase to get to the top of the current wave or actually decreasing spread) but ...
    • The following states/territories (18 of them) appear to have plateaued in their progress recently and have plateaued at the peak of their current wave: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Guam, Idaho, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
    • The following states/territories appear to have plateaued on their way down from the peak: Arizona, Oregon
    • It's a little too soon to tell for Illinois, Massachusetts, and Montana
    • In other words, 23 of the 55 have a better outlook than they did a month ago but are not necessarily making actual progress at this point
Stay safe. Stay informed.

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