Winter is Coming

Right now, of the 50 states in the US, 5 or 6 have started to decrease their spread of COVID-19 in their most recent wave (it's a little too soon to tell for Georgia but we can hope for them) and 6 or 7 have plateaued at levels close to or above their first wave (Kentucky is that 7th where it's too soon again).

Here in MA, we have no apparent intention of doing anything state-wide to curb our steady increasing spread.  As we enter the school year, we're re-opening even more networks for the virus to spread and many are fighting to allow the virus easier access through those networks.

But this isn't all that worries me.  Winter is coming.

We're back to over 90% of our non-ICU hospital beds being in use (currently at 90.9% state-wide, 95.6% in Metro Boston).  It appears to be only a matter of time before we'll need to re-open a field hospital or two... but where will we put them with everything re-opened?  Last fall we were able to use convention centers because they were closed due to restrictions we had in place but will we force those convention centers to cancel the events already booked? 

Winter is coming.

Our spread in MA is akin to where it was at the start of November 2020, as is our hospital usage, and yet we are fighting over whether to take basic precautions, never mind those that we were employing last fall.  And we do not have a track record of responding quickly... we have a track record of waiting until after it's too late and then waiting a little longer.  Last fall we did not react to the rising cases or try to dissuade people from traveling/gathering with family at holidays until we had gotten above our initial wave's peak spread levels and then we found we had double our first wave's peak spread directly following Thanksgiving.  

But that's not all.  COVID-19 isn't the only concern.  

Because, you see, winter is coming.

This fall, we will likely see further increases to our spread, increased usage of our health care system for COVID-19 patients.... and the flu season will come.... and with networks opened much wider than they were last year, the flu will spread as it usually does rather than being reduced by precautions taken to slow the spread of COVID-19 that happen to also reduce the spread of the flu.  

Winter is coming. 

And with all the hospital beds being used for COVID-19 patients, the return of the flu will likely impact us worse than usual.  In 2014, 2015, and 2017, flu/pneumonia was 7th in the top 10 causes of death in MA, with 1,370, 1,512, and 1,433 deaths recorded respectively (in 2016 they were down to 8th with 1,251 deaths).  Now imagine that kind of flu season when we can't properly care for everyone who gets sick because we don't have sufficient beds at our hospitals and/or our hospital staff are already overwhelmed.

Winter is coming and we are not ready.

Stay safe. Stay informed.