Outside MA: Each US State (and some Territories) 28-Day Comparison

Let's take another look at how states are doing.

One quick note, when doing my outside MA reporting, I always use the "report date" instead of the more accurate "test date" data that I use for the MA reporting ("report date" data are just easier to locate).

Color coding for cases/100k per day
  • Blue - Less than 1.5 cases per 100,000 people per day (this is approximately the "Low transmission" from the CDC)
  • Green - Greater than or equal to 1.5 and less than 4 cases per 100,000 people per day (included in "Moderate transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Yellow - Greater than or equal to 4 and less than 8 cases per 100,000 people per day (included in "Moderate transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Orange - Greater than or equal to 8 and less than 16 cases per 100,000 people per day (this is approximately the "Substantial transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Red - Greater than or equal to 16 and less than 24 cases per 100,000 people per day (this and above is approximately the "High transmission" spread from the CDC)
  • Maroon- Greater than or equal to 24 and less than 40 cases per 100,000 people per day
  • Purple- Greater than or equal to 40 and less than 64 cases per 100,000 people per day
  • Black - Greater than or equal to 64 cases per 100,000 people per day
Color coding for comparator between period increases
  • Green - Moving in the right direction
  • Yellow - Moving in the wrong direction
Explanation of Data Points:
  • The first number is the current spread in average cases per 100,000 people per day over the last 7 days (as of yesterday's figures).
  • The second number is the percentage increase from the 7 days leading up to 26-Aug-2021 was vs the 7 days leading up to 24-Sep-2021.
  • The third number is the percentage increase from the 7 days leading up to 24-Sep-2021 was vs the 7 days leading up to 22-Oct-2021.
  • The fourth number is the current fully-vaccinated rate.
  • The fifth number is the at-least-one-dose rate, which gives us a good idea of what the backlog looks like (ie how the fully-vaccinated rate may increase to in the next month)
  • The sixth number is the percent per day they are increasing their at-least-one-dose (ie, how quickly they're getting new vaccinations)

State:                  Cases/100k  Increase-> Increase         Fully      Partial   New Vaccinations
                              per Day        Sep             Oct       Vaccinated    Vacc.       per day
Alabama:   16.0; -25.9% ->  -72.56%; 44.1% 53.7% 0.06%
Alaska: 110.0;   81.9% -> -12.02%; 52.1% 58.7% 0.07%
Arizona:   29.5; -21.2% ->  -12.12%; 52.5% 60.6% 0.06%
Arkansas:   17.2; -38.3% ->  -59.22%; 47.1% 56.9% 0.05%
California:   14.1; -44.3% ->  -32.97%; 60.5% 73.6% 0.08%
Colorado:   40.3;    2.3% ->    40.16%; 60.9% 66.9% 0.06%
Connecticut:   12.6;   -0.6% ->  -29.62%; 70.1% 78.0% 0.08%
Delaware:   35.0;  39.0% ->  -26.98%; 59.3% 68.2% 0.08%
Florida:   10.3; -63.5% ->  -73.17%; 59.0% 68.3% 0.06%
Georgia:   13.5; -44.6% ->  -69.75%; 47.2% 56.1% 0.06%
Guam:   58.6;  98.9% ->  -48.15%; 70.2% 77.3% 0.07%
Hawaii:     8.8;      -38.4% ->  -71.43%; 59.3% 78.1% 0.06%
Idaho:   65.9;   81.2% ->   -3.52%; 43.1% 48.4% 0.06%
Illinois:   16.6; -12.5% ->  -33.88%; 54.4% 69.5% 0.05%
Indiana:   24.9; -13.3% ->  -47.63%; 49.4% 53.2% 0.05%
Iowa:   31.0;   70.2% -> -43.49%; 55.1% 59.1% 0.05%
Kansas:   28.0; -12.2% ->  -30.14%; 52.6% 61.5% 0.08%
Kentucky:   34.6;   -4.5% ->  -59.05%; 54.2% 62.3% 0.08%
Louisiana:   11.2; -68.9% ->  -63.91%; 46.9% 53.0% 0.06%
Maine:   33.8; 128.4% ->   -2.58%; 69.9% 75.6% 0.07%
Maryland:   14.0;   12.9% ->  -30.45%; 65.6% 72.2% 0.07%
Massachusetts:   19.8;   22.0% ->  -21.41%; 69.1% 79.1% 0.07%
Michigan:   40.1;   57.9% ->   24.31%; 53.0% 57.6% 0.03%
Minnesota:   40.7;   47.1% ->     4.61%; 59.3% 64.6% 0.05%
Mississippi:   16.0; -54.0% ->  -67.66%; 45.1% 51.5% 0.06%
Missouri:   16.8; -19.2% ->  -47.35%; 49.2% 56.2% 0.06%
Montana:   79.8; 114.5% ->   -8.38%; 49.9% 56.2% 0.06%
Nebraska:   29.4;     8.9% ->  -18.01%; 55.8% 60.4% 0.05%
Nevada:   20.2; -14.0% ->  -34.94%; 52.2% 62.4% 0.08%
New Hamp.:   40.3;   44.8% ->   36.66%; 62.5% 73.4% 0.16%
New Jersey:   13.4;    7.7% ->   -45.68%; 65.8% 74.1% 0.07%
New Mexico:   33.8; -26.9% ->    20.41%; 64.5% 74.1% 0.07%
New York:   23.0;   14.8% ->  -12.25%; 65.8% 73.3% 0.10%
North Carolina:   23.0;   -3.5% ->   -59.65%; 52.0% 62.5% 0.13%
North Dakota:   62.5;   78.7% ->     1.28%; 45.6% 52.5% 0.07%
N. Mariana Islands:    1.7; -50.0% ->      0.00%; 60.1% 62.8% 0.02%
Ohio:   32.1;   73.5% ->  -42.53%; 51.4% 55.3% 0.05%
Oklahoma:   26.1; -24.7% ->  -45.36%; 49.2% 58.3% 0.08%
Oregon:   28.6; -22.5% ->  -24.25%; 62.3% 67.8% 0.06%
Pennsylvania:   32.8;   68.0% -> -10.06%; 59.8% 75.9% 0.15%
Puerto Rico:     3.6; -75.4% ->  -54.55%; 73.0% 81.5% 0.10%
Rhode Island:   23.1;   19.1% -> -25.98%; 70.1% 77.1% 0.09%
South Carolina:   20.9; -23.1% ->  -68.33%; 49.3% 56.8% 0.07%
South Dakota:   37.1;   24.5% ->  -21.34%; 52.0% 60.8% 0.08%
Tennessee:   21.2; -26.0% ->  -67.81%; 47.1% 54.0% 0.06%
Texas:   16.6; -26.5% ->  -60.41%; 52.7% 60.8% 0.05%
US Virg. Isl.:   15.9; -27.8% ->  -34.62%; 45.5% 62.0% 0.43%
Utah:   42.9;   21.7% ->   -1.72%; 52.8% 60.5% 0.07%
Vermont:   36.4;   72.5% ->    9.66%; 70.7% 78.9% 0.05%
Virginia:   20.9;   20.9% -> -47.84%; 62.3% 70.2% 0.08%
Washington:   29.5;   -9.4% ->  -22.17%; 62.8% 68.7% 0.07%
Wash D.C.:   12.8;  14.0% ->  -54.59%; 62.8% 74.4% 0.11%
West Virginia:   55.5;  75.9% ->  -41.39%; 40.9% 48.7% 0.03%
Wisconsin:   37.2;  86.0% ->  -31.80%; 57.8% 62.1% 0.05%
Wyoming:   74.0;  30.5% ->  -19.25%; 43.3% 50.1% 0.08%

Summary:
  • 4 of 55 states/territories are still seeing spread higher than 64 cases per 100,000 people per day (the CDC's highest delimiter is roughly 14.25 cases per 100,000 people per day so this level of spread is pretty damn high).  Alaska maintains their lead of the pack with higher than 100 cases per 100,000 people per day!  The number of states above 64 has dropped in half.
  • After a long period where New Hampshire had ceased their vaccinations and then some slow vaccinations starting in September's review, they are now second in the charge in new vaccinations with 0.16% per day getting their first shot... though this is a far cry from the 0.52% they were seeing back in March.  There are only 5 other states/territories that are seeing 0.1% or greater per day, most are between 0.05% and 0.08% (so, you know, it would just take another year for a state like Wisconsin to get to 80% fully vaccinated).
  • We went from all states/territories appearing to be moving in the right direction to only having a strong majority and only 12 of the 55 states/territories are below the CDC's highest rate of spread.  Meanwhile, the following states/territories (14 of them) appear to have plateaued in their progress (or shifted from a rapid decline in spread to a much slower decline) with significantly more than twice the rate of spread they saw at the start of the summer: Alabama, Alaska, California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Wyoming
  • Maine saw a dip in spread in the last month but in recent days has been climbing rather sharply again.
  • Arizona, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, and Wisconsin are all continuing a very very very slow decline in spread (both well above where they were at the start of the summer.
Stay safe. Stay informed.

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