Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 10-Nov-2021 Edition
Before getting started with today's update, I just want to explain why I've left in the information going back to June of this year... it's because we need to be reminded that we could do better without shutting down all businesses. We were at phase 3 of re-opening in June and had been for quite some time. We were doing really well and had brought the spread of COVID down to 1 case per 100,000 people per day and even saw a day where nobody died of the disease! And all this with just general precautions like keeping our masks on and not throwing caution to the wind (and not going to big events like major sports and plays). With more people getting vaccinated, it should be easier for us to get back to those levels of spread if we just tried a little harder to take into account not just the risk to ourselves but to our community. When you look at the numbers below, look not just at the trajectory in recent weeks but how far away we are from where we had reached in late June, because reducing COVID spread is not some impossible task, living with a dozen deaths per day is not something we need to do, and putting long-term health at risk for hundreds of people per week should not be something we think of as a necessary evil. COVID can be beat and we saw how to do it just half a year ago.
Ok, now on with the day's report.
New hospitalizations, are relatively static. It looked like they were going down as of last week's report but they inched back up to between where they had been in last week's report and where they were in the preceding week's report... and they're right on track with the last 3 days.
June 13-19 2021 - 13.4
June 20-26 2021 - 12.7
Jun 27-Jul 3 2021 - 11.4
July 4-10 2021 - 14.3
July 11-17 2021 - 14.3
July 18-24 2021 - 17.9
July 25-31 2021 - 34.0
Aug 01-07 2021 - 42.7
Aug 08-14 2021 - 54.7
Aug 15-21 2021 - 69.0
Aug 22-28 2021 - 72.0
Aug 29-Sep 4 2021- 72.1
Sep 5-11 2021 - 79.0
Sep 12-18 2021 - 74.7
Sep 19-25 2021 - 65.6
Sep 26-Oct 2 2021 - 69.9
Oct 3-9 2021 - 63.3
Oct 10-16 2021 - 60.0
Oct 17-23 2021 - 59.7
Oct 24-30 2021 - 57.4
Oct 31-Nov 6 2021- 58.7
Hospital use decreased ever so slightly last week, reducing the decrease for a second straight week... though we have only been decreasing use for 3 weeks, reducing by 2.6 patients the week of Oct 17, to reducing by 1.7 patients, and then to 0.9 patients last week. ICU bed usage and intubations both increased slightly last week, but not too much.
I reported this past Monday that we had already seen that last week's spread was higher than we had seen in 3 weeks... we now know it was higher than the preceding 5 weeks. We will see the known cases for last week continue to increase for the next few days and, while we will almost certainly break 1400 cases per day, we are unlikely to get back to the 1535 that we saw the week of September 19... still, that's the entirety of our efforts to reduce the spread that we had in October erased already with just the first week of November seeing a week-over-week increase of 19%... and more "gathering" holidays are on their way.
June 20-26 2021 - 65.9 cases per day ( 0.96 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jun 27-Jul 3 2021 - 79.1 cases per day ( 1.15 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 4-10 2021 - 118.1 cases per day ( 1.71 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 11-17 2021 - 263.9 cases per day ( 3.83 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 18-24 2021 - 478.9 cases per day ( 6.95 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 25-31 2021 - 721.3 cases per day (10.46 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 01-07 2021 -1000.0 cases per day (14.51 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 08-14 2021 -1156.6 cases per day (16.78 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 15-21 2021 -1315.3 cases per day (19.08 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 22-28 2021 -1442.6 cases per day (20.93 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Aug 29-Sep 4 2021 -1557.0 cases per day (22.58 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Sep 12-18 2021 -1657.7 cases per day (24.05 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Sep 19-25 2021 -1535.1 cases per day (22.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 3-9 2021 -1331.3 cases per day (19.31 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 10-16 2021 -1287.6 cases per day (18.68 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 17-23 2021 -1172.3 cases per day (17.01 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 24-30 2021 -1134.6 cases per day (16.46 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Last week's Wednesday post mentioned that we appeared to have gotten back down to single digits of deaths per day with the caveat that we would only need to find out about 5 more deaths from the preceding week to get back to the double digits... well, we found 11... so... the week of Oct 24 did see fewer deaths than any other week going back to August, but we didn't reach the single digits and instead just decreased to 10.9 deaths per day... and last week saw an uptick to 11.6 deaths known so far. 11.6 is still lower than we saw in most of September and October though.
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