Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 17-Nov-2021 Edition

New hospitalizations, after being are relatively static for about a month, took a turn last week.  It wasn't nearly as drastic as the turn we took throughout July and August, but it was a 16% week over the previous week.  

June 2021                - 15.0
July 2021                 - 19.0 (last week of the month was 34)
August 2021            - 61.1 (1st week of the month was 42.7 and it increased steadily to 72 the last week)
September 2021       - 72.4
October 2021           - 60.3
Oct 31-Nov 6 2021  - 58.7
Nov 7-13 2021         - 68.1

This week has started even worse with an average across the last 3 days being 83.7 and yesterday being the highest single day increase since... still scrolling... please hold... FEBRUARY 24!  If the average of 83.7 keeps up, we'll have had a greater number of new hospitalizations than any week going back to late April.

This, as you might expect, has had an impact on hospital use in general, which when from reducing ever so slightly for 3 weeks straight increasing by 6.1 beds in use per day last week and over the last 3 days has seen an average increase of 30.7 beds being used.  Hospital use has already reverted to levels from September.  And if you want to compare to the hospital use from 2020, we line up with the use from mid-November.  More comparisons from this year?  We spent all of April 23 2021 through September 11 2021 below the current levels and only saw more patients for 8 other days since then.

Unsurprisingly, cases per day have also increased.  Last week we though the first week of November was bad, but those numbers continued to climb as expected and we know know that we saw a 25% increase in spread week-over-week.  And last week already sits at another 25% week-over-week increase (and we're not done finding out about new cases).  Last week's spread already equals that of the first week of November 2020 and surpasses anything we've seen since April 12, 2021.  In fact, it surpasses all but 5 weeks going back to the start of February.  

The known cases for Monday of last week increased by 58% between last Wednesday and today... and this past Monday's known cases are already higher, at 1824, than any day in October and the first week of November. 

June 2021                 -   91.7 cases per day (  1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                 -  364.7 cases per day (  5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021            -1258.6 cases per day (18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021      -1591.7 cases per day (23.10 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021          -1207.6 cases per day (17.52 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 24-30 2021       -1133.1 cases per day (16.44 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 31-Nov 6 2021 -1420.6 cases per day (20.61 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 7-13 2021        -1780.0 cases per day (25.82 cases per 100,000 people per day)

And next week is Thanksgiving, so expect this dramatic shift to get far worse before it gets better.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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