Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 01-Dec-2021 Edition

New hospitalizations increased again last week.  The new hospitalizations last week was higher than any week going back to early February and all of May 31, 2020 through mid November 2020.  Only 3 weeks of the first wave had higher new hospitalizations.

Time period             - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                -  15.0
July 2021                 -  19.0 (last week of the month was 34)
August 2021            -  61.1 (1st week of the month was 42.7 and it increased steadily to 72 the last week)
September 2021       -  72.4
October 2021           -  60.3
Oct 31-Nov 6 2021  -  58.7
Nov 7-13 2021         -  68.1
Nov 14-20 2021       -  88.3
Nov 21-27 2021       -100.1

The first three days of the week have tended to have lower new hospitalizations than the average for the week end up having (not surprising since we're increasing), and this week those 3 days average out to 106.3.

Just as new hospitalizations keep increasing, so does the speed at which we're seeing the hospitals fill up.  In other words, the new hospitalizations are not outweighed by the patients being released (either through death or getting sufficiently well to be discharged... which is different from patients being healthy, mind you).  We went from seeing the count of patients in hospitals decreasing for several weeks in a row to increasing by 6 patients per day the week of Nov 7, to increasing by 18 the week of Nov 14, to 20 last week, and starting this week off with an average of 45!   

ICU headcount wasn't decreasing consistently prior to Nov 7, but it hadn't increased by an average of 2 per day or more since before September 2020, going back and for the between increasing by up to 1.7 and decreasing by as many as 2.8 for any given week.  Last week we broke that trend as we saw an average increase of 4 more ICU beds being used per day... and this week has started off with a bang with an average of 11.7 more ICU beds being used per day.

Last November, cases dipped ever so slightly the week of Thanksgiving, going from 2622.1 cases per day the week before down to 2604.6 the week the week of, but then increasing sharply to 4644 the week after as all those Thanksgiving gatherings caused tremendous spread.... this year looks like it's shaping up to follow suit.

June 2021                 -   91.7 cases per day (  1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                 -  364.7 cases per day (  5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021            -1258.5 cases per day (18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021      -1591.2 cases per day (23.08 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021          -1207.1 cases per day (17.51 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Oct 24-30 2021       -1136.7 cases per day (16.49 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Oct 31-Nov 6 2021 -1422.4 cases per day (20.64 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 7-13 2021        -1812.7 cases per day (26.30 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Nov 14-20 2021      -2470.7 cases per day (35.84 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Nov 21-28 2021      -2305.0 cases per day (33.44 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Just like last year, Monday and Tuesday the week of Thanksgiving are already known to have had substantially higher single-day cases counts than any day in recent months... this year going back to Feb 3 for Tuesday's count and January 26 for Monday's count.  Even Saturday's case count (weekend days tend to have significantly fewer case counts than weekdays, because nobody wants to spend a weekend getting tested) was higher than all but 4 days from Feb 9 2020 through Nov 14 2020 and higher than all but 7 days of the first wave back in April 2020.  Speaking of the first wave, Monday and Tuesday had higher case counts than any day in that wave.  And this Monday... This Monday, whose cases are likely to increase dramatically still as information continues to come in through the course of the next week (last week's report to this week's report had an increase of 47% for cases from Nov 22, for comparison)... this Monday already has 3,846 cases which is already greater than any day from last week by over a hundred cases.

Of course, none of this is surprising if you've been watching how we have been lining up with November 2020 very well in all these categories, including the count of patients in hospitals, in the ICU, and the number intubated.  The main difference right now is just that we have fewer actual deaths.  We're seeing roughly half to one third the deaths we saw last year in November.   And just keep in mind that deaths aren't the only long-term negative consequences of COVID-19 and we don't know how many of those that are contracting it will have long COVID or may never recover fully... and that's not counting the emotional and financial burden for those who get hospitalized or the toll it's taking on our hospital staff to see the repeat of last year despite the our knowing full well what we need to do to reduce the spread and keep each other safe.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.