Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 15-Dec-2021 Edition

New hospitalizations ticked up again last week.  We've now reached a higher number of patients being admitted per day than any other time going back to the first week of February, 2021.

Time period             - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                -  15.0
July 2021                 -  19.0 (last week of the month was 34)
August 2021            -  61.1 (1st week of the month was 42.7 and it increased steadily to 72 the last week)
September 2021       -  72.4
October 2021           -  60.3
Oct 31-Nov 6 2021  -  58.7
Nov 7-13 2021         -  68.1
Nov 14-20 2021       -  88.3
Nov 21-27 2021       -100.1
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  -122.4
Dec 5-11 2021          -162.9

The first three days of the week have tended to have lower new hospitalizations than the average for the week end up having (not surprising since we're increasing the new hospitalizations), and this week those 3 days average out to 165.0.

Hospitals continue are accelerate the speed with which they are filling up.  We now have more patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 than any day going back through February 6, 2021.  We also have more patients in the ICU than any day going back through February 8, 2021 and more people intubated than any day going back through February 17, 2021.  And the rate at which we're seeing hospitals fill up in general as well as the ICU beds filling up has increased for 4 straight weeks.

Past is prologue so let's take a look at last year's cases in December.  The week of Thanksgiving saw a very slight dip, then the week after nearly doubled the cases and then there were 3 weeks of slow decreasing that never got down to even 1.25 times the case load from the week before Thanksgiving before jumping back up to higher than the week after.  This year, we appear to be following that exact pattern.  Time will tell if we decrease for 3 weeks and then jump back up to more than 4,393 cases per day.

June 2021                 -   91.7 cases per day (  1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                 -  364.7 cases per day (  5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021            -1258.5 cases per day (18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021      -1590.1 cases per day (23.07 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021          -1204.5 cases per day (17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 24-30 2021       -1136.0 cases per day (16.49 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Oct 31-Nov 6 2021 -1421.0 cases per day (20.62 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 7-13 2021        -1814.4 cases per day (26.32 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 14-20 2021      -2477.6 cases per day (35.94 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 21-28 2021      -2338.0 cases per day (33.92 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021 -4393.1 cases per day (63.73 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 5-11 2021         -4269.6 cases per day (61.94 cases per 100,000 people per day)

Last week's case count is still higher than all but 6 other weeks before the preceding week since the pandemic began, and all the 6 weeks with higher case counts were all in the period from November 29, 2020 through January 16, 2021.  

Deaths continued to increase, rising to an average of 22 per day, which is more than any week going back through April 4, 2021.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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