Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 19-Jan-2022 Edition

Despite seeing the 11th straight week of new hospitalizations escalating further, there is hope that we've now seen a peak.  Let's start by reviewing the progression from the last 6 months

Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                  -  15.0
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  -122.4
Dec 5-11 2021          -162.9
Dec 12-18 2021        -177.9
Dec 19-26 2021        -192.1
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -260.4
Jan 2-8 2022             -361.7
Jan 9-15 2022           -436.7

So, why is there hope?  For a while now, the first 3 days of the week have been, while lower than the rest of the week ended up being, higher than the preceding week.  This week, they are lower than the preceding week.  

With that said, we're far from out of the woods.  The level of new hospitalizations we're still seeing is still higher than any rate we'd seen prior to the start of January 2022.  Hospitals are still continuing to fill up in all areas (non-ICU, ICU, and intubations).  

Cases are in a similar state... 

June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1258.8 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.3 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021           -  1204.5 cases per day (  17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -  2301.6 cases per day (  33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  -  4399.4 cases per day (  63.82 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 5-11 2021          -  4383.9 cases per day (  63.60 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 12-18 2021        -  5215.3 cases per day (  75.66 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 19-26 2021        -  6693.6 cases per day (  97.11 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -14936.1  cases per day (216.68  cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23059.6  cases per day (334.54  cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 9-15 2022           -15789.0  cases per day (229.06  cases per 100,000 people per day)

That 15,789 cases per day should be taken with a huge grain of salt given that home testing isn't included so unless someone then followed up with getting tested by an organization, they're not identified here.  The other reason it should be taken with a huge grain of salt is that the cases from the first week off January increased by roughly 6,700 between last Wednesday and today.  But even so, last week saw the preceding week at 22,319 cases per day so the preceding week today being at 15,789 cases per day is improvement.... even if it's still MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH as ANY spread we'd ever seen up until just a few weeks ago.

Let's turn to deaths, once again...

June 2021                  -  3.8 per day
July 2021                   -  2.7 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 13.2 per day
October 2021            - 12.8 per day
November 2021        - 14.5 per day
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  - 21.3 per day
Dec 5-11 2021          - 24.1 per day
Dec 12-18 2021        - 29.4 per day
Dec 19-26 2021        - 29.1 per day
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 - 40.6 per day
Jan 2-8 2022             - 47.7 per day
Jan 9-15 2022           - 47.7 per day

So... yeah, we're still seeing pretty high levels of deaths.  Not peak of the first wave levels but higher than we saw from June 2020 through the end of November 2020 and higher than we saw from February 21, 2021 through December 25, 2021.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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