Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 26-Jan-2022 Edition

We do appear to have reached a peak and are improving the situation... but we're still currently in a really bad place.  

Starting with hospitalizations, after 11 straight weeks of new hospitalizations the per-day new hospitalizations last week returned to what it was the 2 weeks prior... still much than any time prior to January 2022.  

Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                  -  15.0
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  -122.4
Dec 5-11 2021          -162.9
Dec 12-18 2021        -177.9
Dec 19-26 2021        -192.1
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -260.4
Jan 2-8 2022             -361.7
Jan 9-15 2022           -436.7
Jan 16-22 2022         -360.4

One quick comment before we move on from this, in the first wave, we only saw 3 weeks that had higher than 100 new hospitalizations and we didn't reach 140 per day and then in all the time since then through the end of December 2021, we had never reached 270 new hospitalizations, never mind 300.   

With the new hospitalizations decreasing, we also saw a decrease in overall hospital use, ICU use, and intubations.... but we're still at higher rates of all three than we had seen from February 2021 through December 25, 2021.  For general hospital use, we're higher than we've been from the end of May 2020 through the end of 2021.  

Cases are in a similar state... 

June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1258.8 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.3 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021           -  1204.5 cases per day (  17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -   2301.9 cases per day (  33.40 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  -  4399.1 cases per day (  63.61 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 5-11 2021          -  4384.9 cases per day (  63.61 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 12-18 2021        -  5219.1 cases per day (  75.72 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 19-26 2021        -  6704.7 cases per day (  97.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -14958.0  cases per day (217.00 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23130.9  cases per day (335.57 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 9-15 2022           -16124.3  cases per day (233.92 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 16-22 2022         -  9774.3  cases per day (141.80 cases per 100,000 people per day)

So, we're clearly reducing the spread, which is great, but we're also still seeing more than 1.6 times the highest level of spread we had ever seen prior to December 27, 2021 (including all prior waves).

Deaths, being the most lagging of our indicators, were still on the rise but may have also reached their peak last week

June 2021                  -  3.8 per day
July 2021                   -  2.7 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 13.2 per day
October 2021            - 12.8 per day
November 2021        - 14.5 per day
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021  - 21.3 per day
Dec 5-11 2021          - 24.1 per day
Dec 12-18 2021        - 29.4 per day
Dec 19-25 2021        - 29.4 per day
Dec 26 '21-Jan 1 '22 - 41.1 per day
Jan 2-8 2022             - 51.3 per day
Jan 9-15 2022           - 52.7 per day
Jan 16-22 2022         - 68.0 per day

68 deaths per day, by the way, is more than we'd seen in all but 5 weeks since the end of the first wave.  Last winter, we had 5 straight weeks each averaging 71-74 deaths per day, and coming as close to that level now is just disheartening given everything we have in our favor now that we didn't have last year.

So, in short, we're doing a lot better than we were the last couple weeks in all ways but in the death rate, but we're very very far from being in any shape that one could consider remotely good.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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