We continue to improve the terrible situation we're in... but it's still pretty terrible.
New hospitalizations are back to where they were in late November, which is great news, but it's still roughly twice what they were for October and roughly 8 times what it was back in June... and the decline is slowing.
Time period - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021 - 15.0
July 2021 - 19.0
August 2021 - 61.1
September 2021 - 72.4
October 2021 - 60.3
November 2021 - 82.5
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021 -122.4
Dec 5-11 2021 -162.9
Dec 12-18 2021 -177.9
Dec 19-26 2021 -192.1
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -260.4
Jan 2-8 2022 -361.7
Jan 9-15 2022 -436.7
Jan 16-22 2022 -360.4
Jan 23-29 2022 -272.7
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022 -166.6
Feb 6-12 2022 -118.1
With the new hospitalizations decreasing, we also saw a decrease in overall hospital use, ICU use, and intubations.... but those decreases have slowed for the second week in a row. And we're still seeing 4 times as many hospital beds used than we saw in all of June and July last year and 7 times the count we saw from June 15 2021through July 20, 2021.
Cases are in a similar state...
June 2021 - 91.7 cases per day ( 1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021 - 364.8 cases per day ( 5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021 - 1259.0 cases per day ( 18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021 - 1589.5 cases per day ( 23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021 - 1204.5 cases per day ( 17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021 - 2301.4 cases per day ( 33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021 - 4398.4 cases per day ( 63.81 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 5-11 2021 - 4384.4 cases per day ( 63.61 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 12-18 2021 - 5220.1 cases per day ( 75.73 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 19-26 2021 - 6705.0 cases per day ( 97.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -14970.0 cases per day (217.18 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022 -23178.9 cases per day (336.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 9-15 2022 -16229.3 cases per day (235.45 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 16-22 2022 - 9937.4 cases per day (144.17 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 23-29 2022 - 5533.3 cases per day ( 80.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022 - 3155.9 cases per day ( 45.78 cases per 100,000 people per day)So, we're clearly reducing the spread, and dramatically, which is great, but we're also still seeing higher spread than we saw in all but 2 weeks of the first wave and all but 2 weeks from February 2021 through the start of November 2021. You might be wondering about the 2 weeks in mid-2021 that were higher than we currently are now. They came when after we lulled ourselves into a sense of security in February and started increasing our cases again in March, rising from a low of 1339 cases per day at the start of March to 1961 and 1963 cases per day the weeks of March 21 and March 28. Past being prologue and all, I think we can see how the slowing in the improvement is going to turn out soon enough.
Deaths appear to have finally stopped increasing, which is also a good sign.
June 2021 - 3.8 per day
July 2021 - 2.7 per day
August 2021 - 6.3 per day
September 2021 - 13.2 per day
October 2021 - 12.8 per day
November 2021 - 14.6 per day
Nov 28-Dec 4 2021 - 21.3 per day
Dec 5-11 2021 - 24.4 per day
Dec 12-18 2021 - 29.6 per day
Dec 19-25 2021 - 29.9 per day
Dec 26 '21-Jan 1 '22 - 41.7 per day
Jan 2-8 2022 - 52.7 per day
Jan 9-15 2022 - 58.7 per day
Jan 16-22 2022 - 75.0 per day
Jan 23-29 2022 - 67.0 per day
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022 - 53.1 per day
Feb 6-12 2022 - 44.4 per day
44.4 deaths per day is still super high though. It's more deaths than we'd seen from the very start of June 2020 through the end of November 2020 and more than we'd seen February 21, 2021 through the very end of December 2021. In fact, we're seeing more than twice the deaths per day from the end of June 2020 through the start of November 2020 and again from April 4, 2021 through the end of November 2021.
And wastewater tracking shows great news too but keep in mind that even though we're not at sky-high levels, if you dive into the actual numbers behind the graphs, you see that we're still pretty high in comparison to where we've been. At the end of May 2021, we saw 42 copies/mL for the southern region and 22 copies/mL for the northern region. Those same numbers yesterday (last reporting) were 209 and 159 respectively. And the reduction shown in those numbers have shown dramatically in the last few days... going from reductions of around 60-80 copies/mL each day at the start of the month, down to reductions of 30-60 copies/mL a week ago, down to reductions of only 5-30 copies/mL the last couple days.
So, in short, we're doing a lot better than we were for the last month, but we're very very far from being in any shape that one could consider remotely good and we're definitely seeing a slow down of our improvement.
Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.
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