Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 23-Feb-2022 Edition

Are you tired?  I'm tired.  Let's go through all the numbers anyway.

New hospitalizations continue to decline but also that decline continues to slow... and we've still got a long way to go to get back to where we had reached last summer.

Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                  -  15.0
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
December 2021         -186.8
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22  -260.4
Jan 2-8 2022              -361.7
Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7
Jan 16-22 2022          -360.4
Jan 23-29 2022          -272.7
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022     -166.6
Feb 6-12 2022           -118.1
Feb 13-19 2022         -  87.3

With the new hospitalizations decreasing, we also saw a decrease in overall hospital use, ICU use, and intubations.... but those decreases have slowed for the third week in a row.  And we're still seeing 4 times as many hospital beds used as the average across June and July last year and 5 times average from Jun 15 through July 15.  

Cases are in a similar state... 

June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1259.0 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.5 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021           -  1204.5 cases per day (  17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -   2301.4 cases per day (  33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
December 2021        -  7467.4 cases per day (108.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -14970.0  cases per day (217.18 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23181.6  cases per day (336.30 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 9-15 2022           -16244.6  cases per day (235.67 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 16-22 2022         -  9941.7  cases per day (144.23 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 23-29 2022         -  5535.4  cases per day (  80.31 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022    -  3157.7  cases per day (  45.81 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 6-12 2022          -  1956.6  cases per day (  28.38 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 13-19 2022        -  1375.6  cases per day (  19.96 cases per 100,000 people per day)

So, we're clearly reducing the spread, and dramatically, which is great, but we're also still in the highest level of spread that the CDC identifies and still more than 10 times the spread we saw in June 2021.... and the improvement we're seeing is vanishing before our eyes as we move from decreasing by nearly half week-over-week to only decreasing about 1/3.  

Deaths continue to decrease as well, but we're seeing roughly 10 times as many people die as we did last summer

June 2021                  -  3.8 per day
July 2021                   -  2.7 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 13.2 per day
October 2021            - 12.8 per day
November 2021        - 14.6 per day
December 2021        -  29.7 per day
Dec 26 '21-Jan 1 '22 - 41.9 per day
Jan 2-8 2022             - 53.3 per day
Jan 9-15 2022           - 59.1 per day
Jan 16-22 2022         - 76.0 per day
Jan 23-29 2022         - 69.3 per day
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022    - 58.0 per day
Feb 6-12 2022          - 46.9 per day
Feb 13-19 2022        - 32.7 per day

And wastewater tracking confirms everything already mentioned, if not painting a worse picture.  We're in a much better place than we were a month ago with around one tenth the copies/mL being found... but we've also essentially stalled the progress, if not seen the spread start to creep back up.  The low may have come last week with the southern region reaching 114 copies/mL on 19-Feb-2022 and the northern region reaching 122 copies/mL (for reference, we spent from 8-May through 20-Jul with 7-day averages below 100, reaching the teens for a while in both regions).  Both averages haven't shifted much in the last 5 days, but while the southern region's average has stayed within 3 copies/mL across the 5 days, the northern region has crept back up to 134 copies/mL.

So, in short, we are still a lot better off than we were a month ago, but we're nowhere near where we should strive to be and appear to have completely stalled our progress.  

So, yes, we're all tired, but we must redouble our efforts to reduce the spread so that we don't see spread start to increase again long before we've gotten to a somewhat ok place.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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