Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 16-Mar-2022 Edition

Let's start where we always do on Wednesdays with fact that new hospitalizations continue to reduce but that improvement continues to shrink.. though we're getting closer and closer to what we saw last summer.  In fact, the overall use is down to below what we saw in 2021 except for all of June and July (and a day before and two days after).

Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                  -  15.0
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
December 2021         -186.8
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22  -260.4
Jan 2-8 2022              -361.7
Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7
Jan 16-22 2022          -360.4
Jan 23-29 2022          -272.7
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022     -166.6
Feb 6-12 2022           -118.1
Feb 13-19 2022         -  87.3
Feb 20-26 2022         -  55.9
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   -  43.3
Mar 6-12 2022          -  33.9

This is all great news though the continued slowing of our improvements is a bit concerning.  Cases, on the other hand, did not see a further slowing of the improvements.

June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1259.0 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.5 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021           -  1204.5 cases per day (  17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -   2301.4 cases per day (  33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
December 2021        -  7469.5 cases per day (108.36 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -14978.9 cases per day (217.31 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23190.3 cases per day (336.43 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 9-15 2022           -16259.4 cases per day (235.88 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 16-22 2022         -  9981.6 cases per day (144.81 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 23-29 2022         -  5542.0 cases per day (  80.40 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022    -  3163.7 cases per day (  45.90 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 6-12 2022          -  1961.6 cases per day (  28.46 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 13-19 2022        -  1392.1 cases per day (  20.20 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 20-26 2022        -    862.7 cases per day (  12.52 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022  -    749.1 cases per day (  10.87 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 6-12 2022         -    597.6 cases per day (    8.67 cases per 100,000 people per day)

We're getting so close to the CDC's "moderate transmission"!  Deaths also shot down dramatically last week, bucking the trend of seeing diminishing improvements.

June 2021                  -  3.4 per day
July 2021                   -  2.6 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 12.8 per day
October 2021            - 11.7 per day
November 2021        - 13.7 per day
December 2021        -  28.7 per day
Dec 26 '21-Jan 1 '22 - 41.0 per day
Jan 2-8 2022             - 51.4 per day
Jan 9-15 2022           - 57.3 per day
Jan 16-22 2022         - 72.9 per day
Jan 23-29 2022         - 66.7 per day
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022    - 54.6 per day
Feb 6-12 2022          - 42.0 per day
Feb 13-19 2022        - 31.9 per day
Feb 20-26 2022        - 27.0 per day
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   - 23.1 per day
Mar 6-12 2022          - 12.7 per day

And then there's the wastewater tracking which shows that we potentially stalled our improvement a few weeks back, despite the other evidence to the contrary.  We continue to have a 7-day average higher than 100 copies/mL, compared to the low double digits that we saw both the summer of 2020 and the summer of 2021, getting down to the low teens in June 2021.  The Southern tracking even suggests a slow increase in spread.  

This is my last hospital-use update report before we start seeing the impact of starting to change our behavior back to "post pandemic" attitudes again with the mask mandates being removed.  It's possible that we've wisened up and realize that the removal of the mandates is not evidence of improvement, but what are the chances of that?  And there's also the upcoming St Patrick's Day celebration.  I guess what I'm saying is that while the indicators from the state's report all seem positive, the forecast is still rather gloomy.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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