Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 23-Mar-2022 Edition

Let's start where we always do on Wednesdays with fact that new hospitalizations continue to reduce but that improvement continues to shrink.... to the point that the first 3 days of this week have seen an increase. though we're getting closer and closer to what we saw last summer.  Last week, the overall use was down to the point where we only saw lower hospital use in June and July 2021 with 1 day before and 2 days after... and today, we're in much the same except that the range increases to 2 days before June.

Time period              - new hospitalizations (not increased headcount, these are newly admitted patients)
June 2021                  -  15.0
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
December 2021         -186.8
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22  -260.4
Jan 2-8 2022              -361.7
Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7
Jan 16-22 2022          -360.4
Jan 23-29 2022          -272.7
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022     -166.6
Feb 6-12 2022           -118.1
Feb 13-19 2022         -  87.3
Feb 20-26 2022         -  55.9
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   -  43.3
Mar 6-12 2022          -  33.9
Mar 13-19 2022        -  29.3
Mar 20-22 2022        -  31.0 (though this is only 3 days and there's a reason I don't like to do short-term fluctuations.

Last week saw the first increase in intubated patients since the start of January 2022.... and the first 3 days of this week have seen an increase to intubated patients, ICU bed use, and general bed use.

Heading to cases, unlike with hospitalizations where the improvement was still slowing last week, we saw not just a downshift on the improvement but a full-reversal.  As of now, last week saw a week-over-week increase of 9%.  

June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1259.0 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.5 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021           -  1204.5 cases per day (  17.47 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -   2301.6 cases per day (  33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
December 2021        -  7469.9 cases per day (108.37 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Dec 27 '21-Jan 1 '22 -14980.3 cases per day (217.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23195.4 cases per day (336.51 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 9-15 2022           -16262.1 cases per day (235.92 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 16-22 2022         -  9991.1 cases per day (144.95 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 23-29 2022         -  5545.1 cases per day (  80.45 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022    -  3163.7 cases per day (  45.90 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 6-12 2022          -  1961.6 cases per day (  28.46 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 13-19 2022        -  1391.3 cases per day (  20.18 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 20-26 2022        -    863.1 cases per day (  12.52 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022  -    749.3 cases per day (  10.87 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 6-12 2022         -    600.9 cases per day (    8.71 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 13-19 2022       -    654.6 cases per day (    9.50 cases per 100,000 people per day)

With last week being the first week where we would see the impact of the removal of mask mandates, I think it's clear where we're heading and that we're not going to reach the CDC's "moderate transmission" with our most recent effort to reduce the spread.

Deaths continued to shoot down dramatically last week for the second week in a row, but this being the most lagging of indicators to watch, I would imagine it will start to go back up in a few weeks.  

June 2021                  -  3.4 per day
July 2021                   -  2.6 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 12.8 per day
October 2021            - 11.7 per day
November 2021        - 13.7 per day
December 2021        -  28.7 per day
Dec 26 '21-Jan 1 '22 - 41.0 per day
Jan 2-8 2022             - 51.4 per day
Jan 9-15 2022           - 57.3 per day
Jan 16-22 2022         - 72.9 per day
Jan 23-29 2022         - 66.7 per day
Jan 30-Feb 5 2022    - 54.6 per day
Feb 6-12 2022          - 42.4 per day
Feb 13-19 2022        - 32.6 per day
Feb 20-26 2022        - 27.1 per day
Feb 27-Mar 5 2022   - 24.3 per day
Mar 6-12 2022          - 13.3 per day
Mar 13-19 2022        -   5.1 per day

And then there's the wastewater tracking which shows a slow increase since around the start of March.  The last couple days do show potential for the southern system to have reduced but the data points for each of those days is still higher than the average from the start of March.  

If the above didn't paint a gloomy picture, keep in mind that the St Patrick's Day celebrations of last Thursday and Sunday almost certainly will give a boost to the already increasing spread, and we'll see that impact be visible in wastewater tracking and case counts in around a week.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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