Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 15-Jul-2022 Edition (based on 14-Jul-2022 state report)

Weekly update on what's happening at hospitals, cases, and deaths.

Summary: New hospitalizations and generally hospital use continue to increase for the second week in a row. Reported cases may have slowed since the prior week but are still 13 times what we were at last week and roughly in line with where we were in October last year. And the laggiest of lagging indicators, deaths, is still more than 5 times as high as it was this time last year.

New Hospitalization (not increased headcount, just the newly admitted patients):
Time period              - Newly admitted patients
June 2021                  -  15.0
Jun 27-Jul 3 2021       - 11.4
July 2021                   -  19.0 
August 2021              -  61.1 
September 2021        -  72.4 
October 2021            -  60.3
November 2021        -  82.5
December 2021         -186.8
January 2022             -341.4
Jan 9-15 2022            -436.7 (peak week)
February 2022           -100.5
March 2022               -  34.3
Mar 13-19 2022         -  29.3 (low week*)
April 2022                  -  61.1
May 1-7 2022             -107.6
May 8-14 2022           -124.1
May 15-21 2022         -136.3
May 22-28 2022         -127.9
May 29-Jun 4 2022     -109.7
Jun 5-11 2022             -  91.9
Jun 12-18 2022           -  89.6
Jun 19-25 2022           -  80.0
Jun 26-Jul 2 2022       -  88.3
Jul 3-Jul 9 2022          -  94.0
* Note that the low week thus far for 2021 is a little more than twice the low for 2022 and that our current level is just under 10 times that low.

Last week at the time of the weekly hospitalization update, the first 3 days averaged to 90.7... so the 96.3 that we see from the first 3 days this week are likely lower than we'll see this week end up given that 90.7 became 94 for last week's average.  

Hospital use, generally, increased slightly again last week... as a reminder, we now have more people in the hospital than any day in March or April this year... including if you only look at those that are hospitalized primarily due to COVID-19 related illness.

Cases:
June 2021                  -     91.7 cases per day (    1.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
June 20-26 2021        -     65.7 cases per day (    0.95 cases per 100,000 people per day)(low week 2022)
July 2021                  -    364.8 cases per day (    5.29 cases per 100,000 people per day)
August 2021             -  1259.0 cases per day (  18.26 cases per 100,000 people per day)
September 2021       -  1589.9 cases per day (  23.06 cases per 100,000 people per day)
October 2021            -  1204.7 cases per day (  17.48 cases per 100,000 people per day)
November 2021       -   2301.8 cases per day (  33.39 cases per 100,000 people per day)
December 2021        -  7473.4 cases per day (108.42 cases per 100,000 people per day)
January 2022            -12834.6 cases per day (186.20 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jan 2-8 2022             -23200.7 cases per day (336.58 cases per 100,000 people per day) (peak week)
February 2022          -  1631.5 cases per day (  23.67 cases per 100,000 people per day)
March 2022              -    816.0 cases per day (  11.84 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Mar 6-12 2022         -    604.0 cases per day (    8.76 cases per 100,000 people per day) (low week*)
April 2022                -  1960.0 cases per day (  28.43 cases per 100,000 people per day)
May 1-7 2022           -  3299.0 cases per day (  47.86 cases per 100,000 people per day)
May 8-14 2022         -  3914.3 cases per day (  56.79 cases per 100,000 people per day)
May 15-21 2022       -  3364.0 cases per day (  48.80 cases per 100,000 people per day)
May 22-28 2022       -  2549.9 cases per day (  36.99 cases per 100,000 people per day)
May 29-Jun 4 2022  -  1920.4 cases per day (  27.86 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jun 5-11 2022           -  1587.1 cases per day (  23.02 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jun 12-18 2022         -  1328.3 cases per day (  19.27 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jun 19-25 2022         -  1332.6 cases per day (  19.33 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jun 26-Jul 2 2022     -  1388.9 cases per day (  20.15 cases per 100,000 people per day)
Jul 3-Jul 9 2022        -  1324.9 cases per day (  19.22 cases per 100,000 people per day)
* Note that our low week so far in 2022 is more than 8 times the low from 2021 (and we're still more than twice that low week today.

Given that July 4 was at the start of last week, I suspect we don't have the full picture even still.  Keep in mind that the prior week increased by 26 cases per day.  Also, we're at about 13 times the spread based solely on reported cases as we were the same time last year, which happened to be the second week of the months' long steady increase that paused in October at approximately where we are today.

Deaths:
June 2021                  -  3.4 per day
July 2021                   -  2.6 per day
August 2021              -  6.3 per day
September 2021        - 12.8 per day
October 2021            - 11.7 per day
November 2021        - 13.7 per day
December 2021        -  28.7 per day
January 2022             - 61.3 per day
Jan 16-22 2022          - 73.0 per day (peak week)
February 2022           - 36.8 per day
March 2022               - 10.4 per day
Mar 27-Apr 2 2022   -   5.4 per day
Apr 3-9 2022             -   5.6 per day
Apr 10-16 2022         -   5.1 per day (low week for 2022 thus far, nearly 4 times the low week from 2021)
Apr 17-23 2022         -   5.7 per day
Apr 24-30 2022         -   6.1 per day
May 1-7 2022            -   8.3 per day
May 8-14 2022          - 11.4 per day
May 15-21 2022        - 15.4 per day
May 22-28 2022        - 12.0 per day
May 29-Jun 4 2022   -  10.1 per day
Jun 5-11 2022           -  12.1 per day 
Jun 12-18 2022         -  12.0 per day 
Jun 19-25 2022         -    8.4 per day
Jun 26-Jul 2 2022     -    8.9 per day 
Jul 3-Jul 9 2022        -    7.0 per day 

Last week at the time of my weekly review, Jun 26-Jul was at 7.4 deaths per day... so we learned about 1.5 more deaths per day in the week since then.  
Last week, 1 year ago, saw the fewest deaths for the entirety of the pandemic at 1.3 deaths per day... an interesting comparison to the 7 we saw last week and we're likely to see that last week this year was closer to 9 than 7 by the time we have our next weekly distribution of information from the state.

Stay safe. Stay informed. Stay keeping your friends, family, and neighbors safe.

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