Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 24-Jan-2021 Edition
Ok, the good news is that we do indeed appear to have reduced the cases from our third peak. The bad news is that our case count is still super-high with only 4 weeks having a lower daily average than the week of Jan 10 (and cases for this past week still likely to increase for another week... this time last week, the week of Jan 10 had 3,668 cases per day and it now has 4,470, just to give perspective of how dramatically the increase can easily be). Already, this past week is well above the first peak and if we see a similar increase in known cases for this past week, we'll be below the second peak but still 1.5 times that of the first peak, you know, the one where we were still in mostly shut-down mode instead of re-opening things like casinos.
Another bit of good news is that hospitalizations are continuing to decline, though the decrease per day in hospital beds being used is smaller than the daily death rate still so.... (roughly 31.3 bed use decrease per day for the last 7 days and 65.6 for the last 7 days of relatively well known deaths ... they keep coming in for a few days so Jan 14-Jan 21 is what I'm using for the count).
More good news is that the intubated count also is decreasing but the bad news is that it's not particularly significantly decreasing yet with only 2 fewer intubated patients over the last 7 days (not daily, total difference from start to finish). ICU beds are decreasing usage slightly quicker, at about 3.4 beds per day... though again, comparing that to the death rate doesn't give me the warm/fuzzy feeling I'd want to have prior to re-opening.
The other thing that I would point out that further decreases my excitement is the simple fact that we've seen decreases previously and then a rapid increase as people let down their guard: https://funwithmacovid-19reporting.blogspot.com/2021/01/proclamation-that-were-passed-our-peak.html
I would love to see our cases keep going down and hospital use continue to go down but if past is prologue, that continuation will not last long, especially as we ease up restrictions (and thereby telling people we're doing well enough to do so).
Another bit of good news is that hospitalizations are continuing to decline, though the decrease per day in hospital beds being used is smaller than the daily death rate still so.... (roughly 31.3 bed use decrease per day for the last 7 days and 65.6 for the last 7 days of relatively well known deaths ... they keep coming in for a few days so Jan 14-Jan 21 is what I'm using for the count).
More good news is that the intubated count also is decreasing but the bad news is that it's not particularly significantly decreasing yet with only 2 fewer intubated patients over the last 7 days (not daily, total difference from start to finish). ICU beds are decreasing usage slightly quicker, at about 3.4 beds per day... though again, comparing that to the death rate doesn't give me the warm/fuzzy feeling I'd want to have prior to re-opening.
The other thing that I would point out that further decreases my excitement is the simple fact that we've seen decreases previously and then a rapid increase as people let down their guard: https://funwithmacovid-19reporting.blogspot.com/2021/01/proclamation-that-were-passed-our-peak.html
I would love to see our cases keep going down and hospital use continue to go down but if past is prologue, that continuation will not last long, especially as we ease up restrictions (and thereby telling people we're doing well enough to do so).
Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay having more than a 3-week attention span.
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