Posts

Showing posts from September, 2020

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 30-Sep-2020 Greater-Greater Somerville local edition

Image
(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington (green) - Sadly looks like last week's 1.9 was a fluke as, ignoring it, you continue the previous trend of increasing: 0.2->0.6->1.6->2.3->2.2->1.9->3.1. Boston (turned red) - Can't say I'm really all that surprised given the trend lines we were seeing at the end of last week and the fact that you were just barely within the yellow at that time. You're now red with 8.5. Here's hoping you can get things back under control soon. Cambridge (green) - You've managed to break your trend but you haven't really started going down significantly... you were 2.6 last week and you're 2.5 this week. Glad to see you haven't moved into the 3's though. Chelsea (RED!) - YOU'RE BACK AT IT WITH REDUCING THE RATE! I'm so proud of you! 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->

Epidemiologists vs Baker on What Direction MA is on

Epidemiologist researching COVID-19 says MA is going in the wrong direction: https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1310760909661515776?s=12&fbclid=IwAR2kW75h3qey0mC0oNb508zSnIfEvtnW4Y55fpD-dYe1ICWsiN-fd9HexJs Gov. Baker says MA is going in the right direction: https://twitter.com/MassGovernor/status/1311003163160436737?fbclid=IwAR0pPMZGrqa1e5XZZPk1J7h3Q2Lg7K4ew92Mm0HSs-12PcNIK5BEn5g0TNA Which one do you think we should trust? A couple quick facts backing up the scientist: Our average daily cases are nearly 3 times what they were a few months ago and continuing to increase (now 426 for last week vs 157 back at the end of June) Hospital use continues to climb Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay not being duped by our Governor.

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 28-Sep-2020 edition

It's official, with the exception of 2 weeks, we have 12 weeks straight of increased cases. And if you bypass the exceptions, you see just straight rising cases (ie, in each case the week after the exception was higher than the week before the exception, so the reductions were really blips and not anything meaningful at all). The average daily new cases (which includes lower counts on weekends) of 399 is higher than any given day from Jun 3 through Aug 30. We also saw our first week with 3 days of 500+ cases since May 24. But cases aren't everything and, indeed, hospitalizations are important... in the last month (31 days), we've seen an increase in hospital headcount of 106 (started at 312 so more than 33% increase), and increase in ICU headcount of 25 (started at 60, so nearly 50% increase), and an increase in intubated patients of 5 (started at 26 so 20% increase). But yeah, we're doing just fine as we re-open and head into the fall. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay inform

Outside MA: UK

The UK has seen 8 days of 6,000+ new cases of COVID-19 since March... 4 of them were before May 7 ... 4 of them were the last 4 days.... For comparison, by the way, the US, with 5 times the population, saw about 65,000 new cases each day at the end of July and is still seeing about 42,500 per day currently.... so, about 2.1 times per per capita at our peak and still 1.4 times as many per capita having reached the point where many states are starting to reopen (again), so, you know, stones and glass houses and all... Still, from Jun 29 through Aug 2 they saw 1 single day when they had more than 900 cases. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Parents Knowingly Sent Kids with COVID-19 to School in Wisconsin

  So... People are refusing to wear masks because they don't see this very simple precaution as a common good they should participate in Part of the argument for sending kids to school is to let the adult carers go to work Is there any reason to believe this would not happen in just about every community? This is why we would need substantial governmental intervention rather than relying on individuals to behave in the communities' best interest over their own interest... if our goal was to reduce the average 40,000 daily cases and 800 daily deaths in the US. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/parents-knowingly-sent-kids-with-coronavirus-to-school-wisconsin-officials-say/2634851/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_NYBrand&amp&__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR0RfJOvTH5haeUypFQZqX1NUrhAsW0vf6TbaS9UWSPpASJJ2zlxXBEC6BA

Boston-proper COVID-19 Status Update (24-Sep-2020 Data)

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9! (red) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1 (still super low) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0 (back to the 7s) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8 (slowed the increase but still increasing) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4 (slowed the decrease but still decreasing) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7 (yellow) Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7->6.5 (turned yellow) Jamaica Plain: 7.9->7.2->5.5->5.8 (heading back to yellow) Mattapan: 5.2->5.5->3.8->3.8 (staying in green though slight uptick in cases last week from the week before, now get back to driving the cases even further down) Roslindale: 5.3->6.5->9.9->10.1 (slowed the increase but still getting more red) Roxbury: 5.4->6.0->6.7->7.9 (near

Outside MA: UK and some of Europe

Periodically, I look at states and countries where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid. Today, let's take a look at the UK and some countries in Europe. The UK and many countries in Europe are seeing a second wave right now. Portugal isn't quite to the levels they saw in the spring and the UK has just recently gotten to higher levels than they saw in the spring. They are now at 5.7 and 6.3 each (in comparison to the US 13 and MA 4.8) and their cases per day are increasing quicker than MA's. France, Spain, and the Netherlands are all having significantly larger second waves than their first wave. These three are giving the US a run for its money by having 15.6, 25.5 and 11.5 cases per 100,000 people respectively... and yeah, those are climbing quickly. Hungary didn't really have a first wave

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 23-Sep-2020 edition

Update on yesterday's good news / bad news segment (spoiler, we now know last week was worse than we realized yesterday): Good news turned bad - It looked like we had leveled off but we have now seen more cases last week than the preceding weeks. Until now, you only had to go back to May 31 to find a week with more cases... now you have to go back to May 24. Bad news - Yesterday I pointed out the following comparisons where our daily average case count was approximately 330 people per day but it's now 358 (more than twice our low point back at the end of June when we had 156 as a daily average the week of June 28. Also, for further comparison, for the month of July, though we saw increasing cases throughout, we had an overall daily average of 218, and we started the month of August with a daily average of 276 for that first week. Bad news - we're still seeing slightly more people enter the hospitals than leave and slightly more people become intubated than get taken off and

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 23-Sep-2020 Greater-Greater Somerville local edition

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington (green) - Continuing your attempt to return to where you were 3 weeks ago, you're down to 1.9... just .3 above where you were 3 weeks ago, just 1.3 above where you were 4 weeks ago... seriously though, keep up the good work of reducing your rate. Boston (yellow but just barely) - Still increasing slightly overall with another .2 increase (second time with that level of increase), now at 7.9... Inches from red (which would match the color of some of your neighborhoods). Stay tuned for the details of neighborhoods, likely on Friday if the last 2 weeks' timing continues. Cambridge (green) - Your bad trend continues ... 1.6->2.0->2.2->2.6. Chelsea (RED!) - Your progress to a lighter red has slowed down... 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->22.4. Pick up the pace please. It would be great for you to re

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 22-Sep-2020 edition

Good news / bad news time: Good news - we appear to have stopped increasing our daily case count and have been relatively steady (neither increasing nor decreasing) since August 30. Bad news - our average daily case count is approximately 330 people per day (more than twice our low point back at the end of June when we had 156 as a daily average the week of June 28. Also, for further comparison, for the month of July, though we saw increasing cases throughout, we had an overall daily average of 218, and we started the month of August with a daily average of 276 for that first week. Bad news - we're seeing slightly more people enter the hospitals than leave and slightly more people become intubated than get taken off and slightly more people enter the ICU than leave the ICU. Bad news - we continue to see an average daily death toll in the low teens. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Boston-proper COVID-19 status update (17-Sep-2020 Data)

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11! (RED) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0! (the total case count went from 235 two weeks ago to 238 last week and down to 235 again this week... so... something about errors in reporting ...) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7 (turned yellow, good job Dorchester) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5 (turned red) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14 (Well done! keep it up!) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8 (yellow) Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7 (yay) Jamaica Plain: 7.9->7.2->5.5 (turned green) Mattapan: 5.2->5.5->3.8 (turned green) Roslindale: 5.3->6.5->9.9 (turned red) Roxbury: 5.4->6.0->6.7 (yellow) South Boston: 2.3->3.6->8.3 (well, that didn't take long) South End: 3.7->3.8->2.2 (good job at driving the cases down!) West Roxbury: 2.1-&g

News Rant - 17-Sep-2020

News this morning: Worcester has jumped in cases per day to 9.5 in the last 2 weeks, but there is some good news which is that the positive test rate is still very low and below 1% which is one of the important data points per the state administration. Me: um, so, what exactly is the good sign? Is it that Worcester doesn't actually have that many cases since the positive test rate is down even though the actual cases is up OR is it that you think that Worcester now has twice as many people living there so the percentage of people who are getting sick has remained low per the test rate?

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 16-Sep-2020 Greater-Greater Somerville local edition

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington - having climbed the last few weeks, you appear to have steadied out...2.3 last week became 2.2 this week. Boston - Still increasing slightly overall, having gone from 7.5 last week to 7.7 this week. Cambridge - Now a 2-week trend in the wrong direction... but still low. You went from 1.6 to 2.0 to now 2.2. Chelsea - You're continuing to bring your deep deep red to a slightly less deep red: (23.9 to) 31.9 to 29.4 to 25 to 22.9. Please keep going... Fitchburg - You're hovering around the border of green/yellow but have no trend: 3.6->4.6->2.4->2.4->3.1->2.2. Holliston - Um, you broke the MA reporting system. According to the total case count, you increased by 11 in the last 7 days but then the case count for the last 14 days reads as "<5"... so... um... yeah, I give up, sorry. L

Boston Globe: So Many Restaurants Have Closed but it's just the tip of the Iceberg

This is why the federal and state governments needed to step in and take this more seriously. Support for individuals and small businesses that were going to be harshly impacted (indeed, sectors that are going to be decimated) by COVID-19 should have been implemented. By saying that this would all be over by April, and then May, and then July, and then November, we're continuously failing to see that there is a desperate need that isn't going to be met. Please support your local restaurants by getting takeout/delivery where possible. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/12/lifestyle/so-many-boston-restaurants-have-closed-its-just-tip-iceberg/?fbclid=IwAR2SAKAn-Pr6F8xQSWsYyQ0mzgUcIJQFzbleNbB8jXKZaXPdhDvb701tZMU

Boston-proper COVID-19 status update (10-Sep-2020 Data)

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1 (yellow) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0 (yellow but so close to green) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3 (yellow) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1 (turned yellow but just barely) East Boston: 34.6->23.6 (Progress made but still SO RED) Fenway: 6.7->7.2 (getting closer to red) Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9 (turned green but only just) Jamaica Plain: 7.9->7.2 (yellow) Mattapan: 5.2->5.5 (yellow) Roslindale: 5.3->6.5 (yellow but for how long?) Roxbury: 5.4->6.0 (yellow) South Boston: 2.3->3.6 (green but heading toward yellow fast) South End: 3.7->3.8 (still green) West Roxbury: 2.1->4.4 (turned yellow... also... damn... doubled your average daily cases!) All of Boston: 7.5->7.0 (progress but still yellow) Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 11-Sep-2020 edition

It being 9/11, I would like to point out that we, in MA alone, have seen more than 3 times as many people die from COVID-19 as the USA saw on 9/11/2001. Good news: we saw a drop of 25 hospitalized patients yesterday. Bad news: In the last 7 days we saw an increase of 7 hospitalized patients. More bad news: In the last 7 days we've seen 0 change in ICU patients (and yesterday we saw an increase of 1) Good news: In the last 7 days intubated patients reduced by 3. Bad news: Yesterday was saw an increase of 1 intubated patient. More bad news: 54 people who have died in the last 7 days (though we can expect Wednesday's number to increase and Thursday's numbers have yet to be included in this tally). If you think I'm neglecting the fact that we've already seen that Tuesday has had the largest single day increase in confirmed cases since June 1, you'd be wrong... just that with the holiday weekend, that milestone doesn't mean quite as much... we should be patient a

Outside MA: Texas

Periodically, I look at states where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid.  Today: Texas, where I have both friends and family. With roughly four times the populace that MA has, Texas has actually been decreasing its cases from roughly 4.2 times the number of cases that MA had at its peak to now around 10 times what MA has seen in recent days. I hope the trend continues and they can get down to the cases per capita that MA currently has. Their deaths have been roughly 10 times worse than MA so the mortality rate among cases is roughly the same, but that does mean they have about 2.5 times as many people dying each day.... though that figure is in decline along with their daily cases. The cases have been slowly declining ever since the Governor put back in place some restrictions to prevent the spread. Congr

Washington Post: At Least 6 Teachers Dead from COVID-19

R oughly 1 month in for some states, just starting even this week or next week in others... this isn't a great sign. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/10/coronavirus-teacher-deaths-fall/?fbclid=IwAR2j0LZhmEnowJrQ32QsZrV_t9UgpptGxtbWeEIxXuSGFiAlZW4gIFMP-no

WBUR Reporting: "They're Not Actually Getting Better"

We don't fully know the long term impacts that COVID-19 has on people but the evidence is mounting that many people will be impacted much longer term than they are by things like the seasonal flu. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/09/10/covid-19-survivor-corps?fbclid=IwAR2SAKAn-Pr6F8xQSWsYyQ0mzgUcIJQFzbleNbB8jXKZaXPdhDvb701tZMU

Morning News Quote on Cases vs Positive Test Rate

"COVID-19 cases are increasing in some communities throughout Massachusetts, this while the positive testing rate continues to be at its lowest" (news report this morning)... Yeah, it's almost like the testing rate doesn't identify how well we're doing when you increase the testing and/or change who is being tested

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 09-Sep-2020 Greater-Greater Somerville local edition

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington - Sorry to say you are continuing your trend of increasing average daily cases for the 3rd week in a row: 0.2 to 0.6 to 1.6 to 2.3. Boston - You're not increasing nearly as much as you were before, you went from 7.4 last week to 7.5 this week.... a review of each neighborhood will likely come out over the weekend, much as it did this past weekend.  Cambridge - Your 2 week trend was broken. 2.5 to 1.8 to 1.6 to 2.0. That's still good but... you know... what with the whole not living in a bubble and the rest of the area trending in the wrong direction... well... you get the picture. Chelsea (reported by request)- You're continuing to bring your deep deep red to a slightly less deep red: (23.9 to) 31.9 to 29.4 to 25. Keep up the good work and you'll be back down to below where you were a month ago...

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 07-Sep-2020 edition

Just 2 days into the new week, we already have seen the average daily new confirmed cases for a week that is higher than any week since the week of May 31. Speaking of average daily new confirmed cases per week... we've seen increasing counts in 8 of the last 9 weeks... and the one week of exception wasn't too far off and the week after that week had more cases than the week before. Oh, and yesterday I pointed out that we saw 3 400+ days in all of June and July (and half of August) and had seen 3 such days in the last 2 weeks.... well, that's now 4 such days in the last 2 weeks or 3 such days just in the last week. We also saw 1 single 300+ day between 10-Jun and 26-Jul (and that day was 300 new confirmed cases). Since 27-Jul, 28 of the 30 weekdays have been 300+ and 16 of those were 350+. Since the start of April, we haven't seen a single week with a less than 12 average deaths per day.... and starting with the week of July 12 we've been hovering around 14 (give or

6 Months in, COVID-19 Death Count is PRETTY High

In approximately 6 months, about 2% of the USA population have caught COVID-19 and approximately 3% of those who have caught it have died... that's more than 63 times as many as died on 9/11 or about 5 times as many from each side in the entire American Revolution (including from disease), if you want something for comparison. Please stay safe today. Please do not hang out inside with others. Please wear masks at all times (yes, people can hear you through your mask). Please stay at least 6 feet away from each other (including outside). Don't forget that many small networks are as good at spreading disease as one large one.

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 6-Sep-2020 edition (bite sized)

Yesterday: You have to go back to June 3 to find a day before August 24 where we saw more than 400 confirmed cases... or you could go back to each of the last 2 Mondays, 401 on Aug 24th and 436 on Aug 31st... and coming right along we have Sep 1 with 398 already with likely days of increasing for that one still to come... so... 3 days of 400+ confirmed cases in all of June and July and we're about to find that we'll have had 3 days of 400+ cases just in the last 2 weeks. Today: tada! Now confirmed: 3 days of 400+ cases in the last 2 weeks. Mission accomplished. How many more such days will we see resulting from this weekend's activities? Please remember that if you hang out with 5 people over the course of 5 days, each of whom had hung out with 5 other people over the course of the preceding 5 days, each of whom had hung out with 5 other people over the course of the preceding 5 days (that's overall spanning 15 days): you just spent time hanging out with 155 people. Net

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 05-Sep-2020 edition (bitesized part 2)

Ok... the state re-introduced "probable" cases on 2-Sep... however... what I just noticed is that, though they've continued to report the new information (ie, how many total probables there are on the given day and how that has changed since the previous day), they do not give an updated list of probable cases per day in their underlying data sheets like they do with confirmed and deaths. The file is even listed as being for the 2nd of September. ~sigh~ Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay as informed as you're allowed to be?

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 5-Sep-2020 edition (bite sized)

You have to go back to June 3 to find a day before August 24 where we saw more than 400 confirmed cases... or you could go back to each of the last 2 Mondays, 401 on Aug 24th and 436 on Aug 31st... and coming right along we have Sep 1 with 398 already with likely days of increasing for that one still to come... so... 3 days of 400+ confirmed cases in all of June and July and we're about to find that we'll have had 3 days of 400+ cases just in the last 2 weeks. How many more such days will we see resulting from this weekend's activities? Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. No really, please stay safe.

USA Today: Small Gatherings Quietly Emerge as Significant Source of COVID-19 Infections

Friendly reminder that if you hang out with 5 people outside your household, and each of them ONLY hangs out with 5 other people, it's similar to your having hung out with 30 people... if on the other hand, each person that your 5 friends hung out with also hang out with 5 more, it's similar to your having hung out with 155 people.... Many small-but-connected networks are just as good at spreading illness as one large network. PLEASE be careful this weekend. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. STAY SAFE! https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/30/covid-19-small-gatherings-quietly-significant-source-infections/5650677002/?fbclid=IwAR2-Jtvu1QPiY-YPcWXbfmrhEDdmrPy-cwq7Qz1_e4zxHALSz1-Si-ZQP6E

Boston-proper COVID-19 status update (3-Sep-2020 Data)

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0 (yellow) Charlestown: 4.8 (yellow) Dorchester: 7.8 (RED) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9 (green but barely) East Boston: 34.6!! (SO RED) Fenway: 6.7 (red) Hyde Park: 4.1 (yellow) Jamaica Plain: 7.9 (yellow but barely) Mattapan: 5.2 (yellow) Roslindale: 5.3 (yellow) Roxbury: 5.4 (yellow) South Boston: 2.3 (green) South End: 3.7 (green) West Roxbury: 2.1 (green) All of Boston: 7.5 (yellow) This is a good lesson in how diverse Boston's neighborhoods are because you can easily tell which neighborhoods are poor and which are rich. Data used to create the above information can be found here:  https://bphc.org/whatwedo/infectious-diseases/Infectious-Diseases-A-to-Z/covid-19/Pages/default.aspx

Bloomberg News: Vaccine Makers Plan Public Stance to Counter Pressure on FDA

It would be a long term disaster for a company if they rolled out a vaccine that turned out to have safety problems. There is a reason why the pharmaceuticals are doing the large-scale safety and efficacy studies. Also, please note that this more than a little suggests that the FDA is bowing to pressure from Trump to push out a vaccine before we're ready for it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-04/vaccine-makers-plan-public-stance-to-counter-pressure-on-fda?fbclid=IwAR3YyIvEc3sAOHDKcGlGikzX7S6cNpQZLTeh9Nvpn4_XVCOb4QltyB4Vha4

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 04-Sep-2020 edition (bitesized)

My comparing a month's progress is now truly depressing. Headcount at hospitals have reduced by 21 in the last month (what a difference a couple days makes huh?). Intubations have decreased by 3...  ICU headcount has INCREASED by 4... 3-day average deaths INCREASED by 4. PLEASE do not go out this labor day. Please stay safe. Go for a walk in an area where nobody else is. Support your local restaurants by ordering delivery or takeout on Saturday/Sunday and enjoy a cookout (or cook-in) at your own place with people in your own household. If you do go grocery shopping, make your plan ahead of time of your path through the story to make your time indoors as short as possible and try to go when there are fewer people or, better yet, see if there's curbside pick up. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. STAY SAFE (worth saying twice this weekend)

Outside MA: Illinois

Periodically, I look at states where I have friends and/or family to see how those states are doing with COVID-19 cases. I always take a look at the population size of the state as well so that the comparison I'm making to MA numbers is somewhat valid. Today, I looked at Illinois. With roughly twice the populace that MA has, Illinois has creeping up from roughly twice the number of cases that MA has to now around 5 times (not counting the spike yesterday which I imagine is due to them changing a calculation or finding a mistake over the last month or so and rectifying it causing a single-day spike that is likely covering a much longer period of time). This means that they're doing about 2.5 times worse than MA is doing in terms of cases.  Their deaths have been roughly 2 times worse than MA which puts them on roughly equal footing... though very recently that figure seems to be increasing.  The relatively shallow look I take at other states is only the reported cases/deaths (

WBUR: Despite Mandate, Some Mass. Court Workers Don't Wear Masks

I really wish that people would follow the rules... can't we at least do it within in government buildings?  How about just in legal-enforcement related government buildings?  No?  Well fu$% https://www.wbur.org/news/2020/09/04/court-coronavirus-ppe-masks-massachusetts?fbclid=IwAR0OekkNC_ZAvPtbZ7gSsr_MPdk1TlfQ4qMmQARI3nL8WrQjf_UoGE4qndQ

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 03-Sep-2020

Mistakes are sometimes amusing... The weekly report for August 19 indicated that there had been 0 new cases in Holliston in the preceding 2 weeks... however... if you look at the total count of cases, on August 5 there were 63, on August 12 there were 64 and on August 19 there were 65... so... yeah... that sounds like 2 to me rather than 0. Again, these things should be formulated by spreadsheet and it it shouldn't be prone to human error and... well... yeah. Also, remember how yesterday I had said we had made some progress in the preceding month but not enough and how that included reduction in headcount in hospitals, ICUs in particular, and people intubated? Well... just to demonstrate how any given day's good news tends to be dampened shortly thereafter: 1-month reduction as of yesterday for hospital headcount was 92 and today it is 63 (in part because a month ago we had a good day and in part because the headcount grew) 1-month reduction as of yesterday of ICU headcount was

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 02-Sep-2020

First off... PROBABLE CASES ARE BACK! I have no idea why they brought them back but... there they are... first time in a while that they've been reported on.... still at the back of the report but, I guess someone felt they were important enough to include? Next up, to all those that are excited by how low we've gotten in hospitalizations (and we have indeed reduced the headcount by 92 in the last month) and the various times when the state has reported a low number on a given day (and often, if you're paying attention, that number turns out to be just because we hadn't heard about all the cases/deaths or the progress has been eroded a bit), I would like to point out 4 things: We only decreased headcount in the ICU by 10 in the last month We only decreased the number of intubations by 4 in the last month We have EXACTLY THE SAME number of hospitals using surge capacity as we did 1 month ago today We've seen 422 deaths in the last month. And if those numbers seem goo

Fun with MA COVID-19 reporting 02-Sep-2020 Greater Somerville local edition

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington - Sorry to say you are continuing your trend of increasing average daily cases... 2 weeks ago it was 0.2, then last week it was 0.6... now... 1.6. Still not terrible but... you know, much like the state overall, wrong path. Boston - Same as Arlington except that you started off in a worse place... going from 6.4 two weeks ago to 7.1 last week to 7.4 now. I suppose it's good that you're not increasing as quickly as you were before? Still, Boston Be Better. Cambridge - 2 week trend! Of course, there was another 2-week trend on this list last week and (spoiler alert) that trend was broken and in a bad way. That said, your progression in that trend this week isn't as good as it was last week (2.5 to 1.8 to 1.6) but still, please keep it up and give us hope in our local area. Chelsea (reported by request)-

Fun with MA COVID-19 Reporting 01-Sep-2020 edition (bite sized)

We've already seen the highest average daily new confirmed cases last week than any other week since May 31. And we're just getting started with this week so expect that to rise for a couple more days. From June 13 to July 19, we saw 2 days that had more than 250 new cases. Last week we had no week day that had fewer than 325. Monday of last week had 400 new cases... the most recent day prior to that where we had 400 or more new cases was on June 3. Speaking of June 3, that's also the most recent day where we had 385+ new confirmed cases on a single day until last week, where we had at least 3 days of 387+ and we likely will had Friday to that list soon since it's already at 368. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay mathy.