Fun with COVID-19 reporting in MA (and elsewhere)

With the map looking as bad as it does, you would think that it was likely as bad as it really is... but no, the reality is worse than the Baker administration is reporting.  They're doing their math right, and I don't think I have sufficient access to check the figures to confirm that those figures are in fact the proper ones but I also have no reason to believe they would lie.... and they don't need to in order to skew the results a bit in their favor.  You see, math can lie depending on what you're using to do the calculation. I have long assumed that they were comparing like to like to do their comparison to determine the quantity of new cases in the last 2 weeks.  Like to like would be the known total for a city/town from on a particular day vs the same value 2 weeks later.  Like to like could be other options as well, provided those numbers were equally stable.  This is not the case, however. The Baker administration appears to be taking, on a single day, ...

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9->9.2->11->8.7->5.6->7.6 (still yellow, but barely) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1->4.0->3.7->4.4->7.4->11.8 (and to into red we go...)  Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0->12.3->15.7->18.9->19.8->26.5 (I got nothin)  Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8->5.7->6.7->6.3->6.996->12.7 (I kept my reporting within 6's last week and you said "there's just no way we're letting you get away with that")  East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4->20->17.7->16.4->22.7->29.4  Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7->6.7->6.2->4.6->7.98->12.7 (just like Back Bay, etc.)  Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7->6.5->10.3->13->17.6->17...

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Before we begin.... HOLY SH#$ that map is BAD Arlington (green) - "flirting with yellow" was last week's comment.... well... no longer flirting.... 0.2->0.6->1.6->2.3->2.2->1.9->3.1->2.5->1.4->3.9->6.5 Boston (getting redder) - Daaaamn. 6.0->6.4->7.1->7.4->7.5->7.7>7.9->8.5->10.0->11.1->12.0->15.8 Cambridge (green) - good job on getting back to green, though just barely 2.4->2.5->1.8->1.6->2.0->2.2->2.4->2.5->2.4->3.3->4.1->3.9 Chelsea (RED!!!) - and back to getting redder 25? 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->22.4->18.8->22.4->30.9->28.4->32.6 Fitchburg (turned RED!!!) - holy f@#$ 3.6->4.6->2.4->2.4->3.1->2.2->1.5->1.5->2.4->3.9->4.7->21.4 Holliston (red) - 5.7->3...

Can we give up on the idea that the cases are all coming from colleges and social gatherings now? In the last month (sorted by cases): Colleges: 52 cases from 23 clusters Restaurants: 72 cases from 29 clusters Places of worship: 77 cases from 15 clusters K-12 schools: 77 cases from 26 clusters Childcare: 78 cases from 50 clusters Social Gatherings: 79 cases from 33 clusters Organized Athletics/Camps: 93 cases from 28 clusters The same clusters produced the following close contacts (now sorted by this data point: Colleges: 34 Restaurants: 84 Social Gatherings: 96 Places of worship: 105 K-12 schools: 247 Organized Athletics/Camps: 331 Childcare: 335 Enough already, Baker. Stop acting like Trump and blatantly lying to us all and start taking this seriously, you f@#$ing a@s&*le Oh, and in case you're curious about cases and deaths... Deaths from last week ticked up a bit and we're now back above the couple weeks I mentioned yesterday and back to looking to June 21 to find a w...

Yesterday I said the "good" news was that we only saw 16.5 deaths per day on average last week rather than the level we had seen the preceding week of 19.8... well... today we now have last week averaging 18 deaths per day which puts us within 0.6 of June 28 and July 5 and higher than any week since then (except the directly preceding week). Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Well, yesterday we had 2 weekdays under 1000 cases last week, today we have no weekdays under 1050, which means that there is NO day between May 19 and the start of last week that reaches the count of ANY weekday last week. This far exceeds my prediction that the average for the weekdays last week would have had 900+ cases by the close of this week... the average weekday cases was 1,111.6. Thursday of last week now has reached 1343 cases, which brings us back to May 12 looking for a day as bad. The week saw an average of 923 cases per day (Sunday has 327 and Saturday, which is still increasing, saw 581) which means we are no longer looking at the week of May 17 for a week that exceeded and now have to look at May 10. Oh, also, the comparison of the average from last week to the one before? Yeah, we increased by 30 percent! Month over month? We DOUBLED! Hospital usage, ICU usage, and intubation counts are all up too, so no bright spot there. The 3-day average hospital usage from exactly...

Yesterday's prediction for today has come true and boy howdy has it. (prepare for a bit of a rant that's full of numbers) We now have 3 days last week above 1,000 new cases, 1 day with 963 and 1 with 847.  Between May 27 and Oct 13 there is exactly 1 day that reached 847. There were 3 such days the week before last, so, you know, the lowest day last week is pretty damn high. Between May 22 through to a week ago yesterday, there were 0 days that reached 963. To find a day that reached 1044, you have to go back to May 19. Thursday now has 1183 cases. Let me say this again, there have been 0 days from May 22 through to the start of last week that reached 963, not a single one and last Thursday's known case count, which we can expect to increase by double-digits still tomorrow, is now known to be 1183. The average for last week (and there are still several days before this stops growing) is now at 831. To reach that average, you have to go back to the week of May 17, which is n...

I'm not going to tell you about the cases just this past week tonight. I'm not going to tell you about the newly reported deaths tonight. I'm not going to tell you about the hospitalizations or the positive test rates. Instead, I'll just make some predictions: Tomorrow night I'll be confirming for you that we have seen another straight week of more new cases than prior weeks. I'll also be announcing something about the number of days last week that had single day increases higher than any single day since May 19 (including the week prior). A week from now I'll be confirming that we reached 10,000 deaths (among confirmed and probable cases). Gov Baker will continue to (in perpetuity) demonstrate his expectation and acceptance that people are about to get thrown out of their living arrangements in high numbers. (Please remember that only a court can evict you and there are organizations available to help you should you need it). In the next week, Gov Baker wil...

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9->9.2->11->8.7->5.6 (YES! Welcome back to yellow, now keep it up and go green!) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1->4.0->3.7->4.4->7.4 (will you be red next week?) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0->12.3->15.7->18.9->19.8 (just stop racing with East Boston...) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8->5.7->6.7->6.3->6.996 (I had to go to the thousandths because I didn't want to break your having not reached 7 yet...) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4->20->17.7->16.4->22.7 (...) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7->6.7->6.2->4.6->7.98 (if we rounded, you'd be red...) Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7->6.5->10.3->13->17.6->17.6 (at least you didn...

Just thought I'd do some quick updates, you know, cause who doesn't want to hear that the case count for this past Monday has increased to the point of surpassing any day in June through September (with plenty of increasing yet to come). Don't worry, the case count for last week increasing dramatically, as it did today (going from 650 per day to 684 per day, or increasing by 239 cases for the week), is still well in the middle of the difference between the week of May 17 and May 24.... that's because way back in May we were still trying to reduce cases so we went from 854 to 498 per day between those two weeks... you know, back when we were decreasing the average by well over 100 per week... yeah, that ended the week of May 31 too... but I digress... we have a ways to go to get to the average case count of mid-May with 854. The death toll last week didn't grow much today (though it did increase a bit) but this Monday's death count is now greater than any day fro...

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington (green) - flirting with yellow... 0.2->0.6->1.6->2.3->2.2->1.9->3.1->2.5->1.4->3.9. Boston (getting redder) - Definitely made the right choice to go remote with schools. 6.0->6.4->7.1->7.4->7.5->7.7>7.9->8.5->10.0->11.1->12.0 Cambridge (yellow*) - So... I assume we're going to blame this on colleges, right? 2.4->2.5->1.8->1.6->2.0->2.2->2.4->2.5->2.4->3.3->4.1 Chelsea (RED!!!) - at least you stopped getting redder, now to get back before 25? 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->22.4->18.8->22.4->30.9->28.4 Fitchburg (turned yellow) - cAnd to yellow you turn... you had a good run there for 8 weeks.... 3.6->4.6->2.4->2.4->3.1->2.2->1.5->1.5->2.4->3.9->4.7 Holliston (red) - 5.7->3.1-...

Let's just start with acknowledging that tomorrow, it is very likely that we will see a different range per color coding for the MA cities/towns because the state map was showing a lot of color last week and Gov Baker didn't like people being alarmed by the reality of the situation. Ok, next up, let's talk case counts. Last week we now have seen 2 days that surpass any day preceding all the way through May 22. A third day last week surpasses all but 1 day in all of June through September (and is only matched by 1 day in October before last week).... and a fourth day surpasses all but 2 days in earlier weeks in October (and 1 day in June through September. The average case count for last week is now 18 per day higher than the preceding week so we've reached 15 weeks of straight increases (with 2 exceptions). This week, we've already seen a day (with a week before that day's cases stop increasing further) that has higher than any day from May 29 through September ...

We continue to see increases in cases. Last week we saw: Two days with more single day case increases than any single day going back all the way to May 21. This is a full week deeper into May than previously seen in October and includes all weeks leading up to last week where we had been seeing increased case counts. Another day that has more cases than all but 2 days going back to May 27. No weekday that did not outpace in daily cases any day from May 29 through Sep 23. An average (this is still increasing) of 640.5 new cases daily, which is higher than any other week since May 17 (though still not as high as that week). Not a single day when the percent of individuals testing positive was less than 3.6% (for reference, the same rate was below 2.5%, with the exception of 1 day, from July 5 through September 21) And we saw more deaths over the course of the week than we've seen since June 28. I had hoped to be able to say that we seem to have stabilized at a new level of cases but....

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9->9.2->11->8.7 (much better, get back to yellow for us though, please) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1->4.0->3.7->4.4 (welcome right back to yellow) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0->12.3->15.7->18.9 (You caught up to East Boston and then some) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8->5.7->6.7->6.3 (you're remarkably consistent... I wish you were remarkably consistently green but consistently yellow is better than many other areas) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4->20->17.7->16.4 (keep going, there's absolutely no reason you should settle for 3rd worst and can't get below one more neighborhood to make it to 4th worst) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7->6.7->6.2-...

I'm not going to comment on today's MA COVID-19 report that indicates that the 3-day average death rate as reached 19 which is higher than any other week going back to July 9th. I'm not going to comment on the fact that on Monday, 23 people died of COVID-19 in MA, higher than any day going back to July 24. I'm not going to comment on the fact we have yet to see a week where the average death rate is below 12 going back through to March 23. That's more than 12 people dying EVERY DAY. I'm not going to comment on fact that so far, we've seen an average DAILY death toll of 14.4 people in October. I'm not going to comment on these facts not because it upsets me and certainly not because it should upset you, but because it clearly doesn't upset Baker enough to do anything about it so whatever would be the point of making a comment? Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed. Stay outraged at both President Trump and Governor Baker for both of their mishandling of...

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington (green) - excellent job: 0.2->0.6->1.6->2.3->2.2->1.9->3.1->2.5->1.4. Boston (getting redder) - you are nothing if not consistent... please stop being so damned consistent and get better. 6.0->6.4->7.1->7.4->7.5->7.7>7.9->8.5->10.0->11.1 Cambridge (green) - You've decided to move from the 2's to the 3's... 2.4->2.5->1.8->1.6->2.0->2.2->2.4->2.5->2.4->3.3 Chelsea (RED!!!) - I'll I'm going to say is sorry. 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->22.4->18.8->22.4.->30.9 Fitchburg (green) - continuing your turn toward yellow from last week. 3.6->4.6->2.4->2.4->3.1->2.2->1.5->1.5->2.4->3.9 Holliston (red) - Didn't take long to get back to red, but fluctuations in small towns can be like t...

Last week's case count is already higher than any other week going back until May 17... which was the case last week but now we're able to report that again because, even though cases will keep increasing for last week for a couple more days, we're over the total from the previous week by 189, or an average of 27/day. Also... we've now seen 2 straight weeks with every single weekday having more new cases than any single day from May 29 through Sept 23 (and that run of large-case-count weekdays starts on Sep 28... so...) Last week also saw 4 straight days with only 1 day of higher case count going back through May 27... including the immediately preceding week. Testing, with 1 exception, has been above 3.0% for individuals for the last 20 days. For comparison, the same rate was below 2.5%, with the exception of 1 day, from July 5 through September 2.... oh, and 13 of the last 20 days that percentage was 3.5% or higher and 4 of the last 15 were 4.0% or higher.... 2 of the...

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9->9.2->11 (please get back to trying to get to yellow) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1->4.0->3.7 (welcome back to green) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0->12.3->15.7 (um, gang? are you aiming at overtaking East Boston?) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8->5.7->6.7 (and back to the high 6's we go) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4->20->17.7 (yes, back to reducing, keep it going) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7->6.7->6.2 Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7->6.5->10.3->13 (didn't take long to go from green to red to deeper red, please return to green soon) Jamaica Plain: 7.9->7.2->5.5->5.8->4.9->6.7 (heading back up) Mattapan: 5.2->5.5->3.8->3.8->7.9...

Ok, in all of May 29 till the start of last week (so, all of June, July, August, and almost all of September) that exceeded last Friday's count. There were no days in the same time, none, that reached the case count for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday OR Thursday. You want averages? How about 354 cases per day the week of Sep 13, 450 the week of Sep 20, and 580 the week of Sep 27. Again, back in the end of June we saw that average at 157 for a week and below 200 for 4 weeks (Jun 14-Jul 11). The week of May 17 saw 855 per day and the week of May 24 saw 499, so we're somewhere between mid May and late May in terms of how many cases we're seeing per day... you know... right where we were when we STARTED reopening. Testing, with 1 exception, has been above 3.0% for individuals for the last 14 days. For comparison, the same rate was below 2.5%, with the exception of 1 day, from July 5 through September 2. We don't need to be scared of COVID-19 but we need to be cognizant of it an...

(All average cases listed are 14-day averages and are per 100,000, which means that it's comparable between cities without regard for each city's population) Arlington (green) - I mean, good job at staying in green but... try to get back where you were (even if everybody else is just trying to get to green): 0.2->0.6->1.6->2.3->2.2->1.9->3.1->2.5. Boston (getting redder) - Continuing to get worse, going from 8.5 last week to 10 this week... glad you decided to go remote for your public schools. Cambridge (green) - You're really liking the mid 2's which you've now been for 3 weeks. You're in a race with Arlington for greenest neighbor of Somerville. Chelsea (RED!) - I was so excited last week ... but no, you've regressed 2 weeks now. Get better soon. 31.9->29.4->25->22.9->22.4->18.8->22.4.  Fitchburg (green) - Took a turn toward yellow but still very green... there's pretty much a three-way tie for snapshot green but...

We're really increasing cases fast... and we're back to mid-May numbers of cases Already this past week (we're days away from seeing last week's numbers not increase daily), Monday through Thursday have more new cases than any day from May 29 through Sep 8 (and 4 days since May 29 through Sep 27 surpass Thursday, only 1 day surpasses Wednesday). Already this past week has more new cases than any week since May 17 (and not by a little... at 541 per day on average, it's 92 more per day than the previous week and 42 more than the week of May 24, both of which had more cases than any week in between). Already this past week has had more deaths than any week since July 5. PLEASE behave as you did back in late April/early May, because that's where we very much are about to be, regardless of what the Governor says. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed

Yesterday: "Cases on a given day continue to come in for around a week to a week and a half... with that said... this week we've already seen that Monday and Tuesday have higher counts than any other day since May 28... and for Monday's count, you have to go back to May 26 to find a single day increase so high."... Today: Both Monday and Tuesday are now higher than any day going back to May 26 and Monday is now close to going back to May 21 (increased 9 since yesterday and is now only 5 away from reaching May 26th's total). This past Wednesday (just 3 days ago so expect continued increases for at least 4 more days) saw more than any single day in June, July and August (all the way from May 29 up till Sep 8). This past Thursday (5 more days of increases at least, including probably a triple digit increase tomorrow) already is higher than any day Jun 4 through Aug 30. I predict that tomorrow I'll be posting that we already know that this week has been another in...

I periodically look at states outside MA blah blah blah... today let's look at Illinois shall we? Interestingly, both MA and Illinois reached roughly the same number of cases/day in April/May. That's strictly the number of cases, not the rate. So, MA was roughly twice as bad off. Then, back in June, both Illinois and MA had their low-point of cases/day. MA reached around 175 and Illinois reached 600. Illinois reached its low point before MA... but that can be spun slightly differently: they stopped driving their cases down and started increasing sooner and before they had reached the equivalent levels MA was able to. Next, Illinois speedily increased their cases. They reached roughly 1,800 by the end of August. They appeared to have stabilized their cases, but it appears to be ticking up in the last couple weeks (though it's a little soon to tell if that's just a blip or sustained growth. They're definitely not over their second wave and it may just be beginning as ...

Cases on a given day continue to come in for around a week to a week and a half... with that said... this week we've already seen that Monday and Tuesday have higher counts than any other day since May 28... and for Monday's count, you have to go back to May 26 to find a single day increase so high. Please behave as you did back in late April/early May. We can only reduce the suffering by all working together to protect each other. Stay safe. Stay sane. Stay informed.

Cases PER DAY per 100,000 people for the last 2 weeks as of last week and then that average now (color coding per state analysis criteria) Allston/Brighton: 5.0->6.1->11->10.9->9.2 (keep working at it) Charlestown: 4.8->4.0->0->1.1->4.0 (back to yellow ) Dorchester: 7.8->7.3->5.7->7.0->12.3 (it's been a rough couple weeks, stay safe) Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, North End and West End combined: 3.9->4.1->6.5->6.8->5.7 (getting back in gear) East Boston: 34.6->23.6->14->13.4->20!! (Nooooooo) Fenway: 6.7->7.2->6.8->6.7->6.7 (yellow) Hyde Park: 4.1->3.9->3.7->6.5->10.3 (didn't take long to go from green to yellow to red) Jamaica Plain: 7.9->7.2->5.5->5.8->4.9 (nicely done, keep going toward green) Mattapan: 5.2->5.5->3.8->3.8->7.9 (and yellow it is... and just barely not red... get back to working on it) Roslindale: 5.3->6.5->9.9->10.1->10.9 (still increasin...

Every so often, I review the COVID-19 cases in other states or other countries based on friends, family, and/or coworkers. Today, let's take a look at Brazil, India and Japan. Starting with Japan. Japan saw a first "wave" that saw 743 cases as a peak and mostly under 500 cases per day back in April and then saw a second wave in Aug where they saw round 1,250 per day for a bit. They've been going down but they're still seeing about 500 cases per day. To put these numbers in context, Japan has about 2/5 the population of the US which is seeing around 40,000 cases per day right now...so, at Japan's peak, they saw around 1/12 the rate the US is still seeing. Japan also has 18.5 times as many people as MA... and MA is seeing 450 cases per day right now ... which would be the equivalent of roughly 8,185 cases per day for Japan's population so... 7 times as many as Japan at its peak? India saw steady increase in cases starting in late April and really climbing in...

Yesterday, last Thursday was the highest single day new cases since in May 28 but nobody has time for that news because today this past Monday (already, just 4 days ago... reminder, a day's cases continues to go up for over a week) is already the highest single day new cases since May 26. And since a single day isn't important, I'll remind you that we saw an average of 157 cases per day the week of Jun 28, averaged 218 the month of July, 28 the month of August, 370* the month of September, 354 the week of Sep 13, and 450* the week of Sep 20. *expect these numbers to increase tomorrow and for several more days... yes, we will potentially see last week having 3 times as many cases as the week of Jun 28... and we haven't seen a single week since mid August that didn't have twice as many as Jun 28. Also, we've now seen the second day of 6 hospitals using surge capacity... 6... we haven't seen that count since July and you have to go back to July 14/15 to find 2 ...